Guoxin Securities: RoboX commercialization accelerates focus on automotive sector performance in the second quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that in May, the domestic passenger car market continued its recovery trend. Retail sales increased 13% year over year to 1.93 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy sources climbed to 47.3%. The decline in raw material costs is compounded by an improvement in inventory, and industry profits can be expected to recover. In the medium to long term, focus on incremental component opportunities under the rise of autonomy and the trend of electric intelligence. On a one-year basis, I am optimistic about the strong new product cycle of Huawei cars and the Xiaomi car industry chain in the first year of models.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

Sales tracking

According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Transport Federation, the national passenger car market retailed 1.93 million vehicles in May, up 13% from May last year, up 10% from the previous month, and has sold 8.802 million vehicles since this year, up 9% year on year; from May 1 to 31, passenger car manufacturers sold 2,329 million vehicles, up 14% from May last year, up 6% from the previous month, and a total of 10.797 million vehicles have been sold since this year, up 12% year on year. According to Shanghai Insurance data, in May (5.5-6.1), a total of 1,708,600 domestic passenger cars were licensed, +12.5% year-on-year; of these, 911,700 new energy passenger vehicles were licensed, +23.9% year-on-year.

This month's market

The CS automotive sector rose 1.88% in May. Among them, CS passenger cars rose 1.12%, CS commercial vehicles rose 1.6%, CS auto parts rose 2.52%, CS automobile sales and services rose 3.26%, CS motorcycles and others rose 1.89%. During the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.85%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.09%, and the CS Auto sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.04 pct, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2 pct. The automotive sector has risen 29.05% since the beginning of 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has risen 11.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 12.52%, and the CS Auto sector has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 17.13 pct and the Shanghai Composite Index by 16.53 pct.

Cost tracking

As of the end of May 2025, the prices of float flat glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots were -24%/-3.2%/-7.6% compared to the same period last year, respectively, and -4.5%/+1.9%/-0.6% compared with the same period last month, respectively.

inventory

In May 2025, the inventory warning index for Chinese car dealers was 52.7%, down 5.5 percentage points year on year and 7.1 percentage points month on month. The inventory warning index is above the boom and bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile distribution industry has improved.

Market attention

1) Smart driving: Wenyuan Zhixing, Baidu Express, etc. expand robotaxi plans. Tesla will launch robotaxi in June, accelerate the launch of unmanned logistics delivery vehicles, and Xiaopeng will sink the full-scene intelligent driving plan to 150,000 yuan; 2) Robotics: Shenzhen sets up a 7 billion yuan industrial fund to focus on AI and physical robots; 3) models: Seal 06EV, Star Era ET facelift, Hongqi H6 facelift, etc.

Risk warning: The risk that the automotive supply chain is tight, economic recovery falls short of expectations, and sales fall short of expectations.