Cryptocurrency boom returns, stablecoin giant Circle (CRCL.US) may surge 50% on the first day of listing

The fervor in the cryptocurrency market is returning strongly. The Zhitong Finance App learned that the initial public offering (IPO) of Circle Internet Group, the world's leading stablecoin issuer, has been enthusiastically sought after by investors and has recently become the focus of Wall Street.

Circle will soon be listed on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The stock code is “CRCL,” and the issue price is set at $31 per share, far higher than the previously anticipated price range. According to the latest trading data, its opening price is likely to be between $45 and $47 per share, which is 45% to 52% higher than the issue price.

Based on the issue price, Circle's market value is approximately US$6.8 billion; if options, warrants and additional shares that underwriters may purchase are added, the overall valuation of the company is close to US$8 billion. The IPO will raise Circle about $1.1 billion.

Wall Streeters generally expect this release to be oversubscribed. A trading director of a major brokerage firm said that Circle's shares are “in short supply” this time, and market demand far exceeds actual shares available.

Circle raised the issue price range earlier this week, from $24 to $26 to $27 to $28, and raised the number of shares issued several times, from the initial 26 million shares to 32 million shares, and finally set it at 34 million shares, fully reflecting its enthusiasm for investment.

The company is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. USDC is a cryptocurrency linked to the US dollar. Its price is basically maintained at 1 US dollar. It is known as a “stablecoin”. Because its price fluctuates far lower than mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is often used in payment and settlement scenarios.

Circle currently remains profitable, and its income mainly comes from interest income generated from its asset reserves. However, Third Bridge analyst Jacob Zuller said that Circle is expected to expand its revenue structure in the future and gradually shift its focus to the payment business.

Although USDC still lags behind rival USDT issued by rival Tether (market capitalization of about US$153.8 billion) in the stablecoin market, its market capitalization has reached US$61.5 billion, and its market share is about 28%. Analysts believe that in the context of policy clarity, Circle's market share may increase to 40%.

Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market continues to heat up. Bitcoin has risen more than 35% since April 7. At that time, Trump announced the “Liberation Day” policy, triggering a general decline in risky assets, but Bitcoin bucked the trend and strengthened, attracting a large influx of capital.

Meanwhile, the stock prices of companies involved in cryptocurrency investments such as Coinbase (COIN.US) and Robinhood (HOOD.US) have also risen sharply in the past two months. Companies such as eToro Group and Galaxy Digital have also launched plans to go public in the US, indicating that crypto assets are gradually being accepted by mainstream capital markets.

It is worth noting that there has also been a marked shift in attitudes towards cryptocurrencies in US politics. Trump and current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins are open to digital currencies, in stark contrast to the conservative positions of former President Joe Biden and former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

If successfully passed, the “GENIUS Act” (a draft stablecoin regulation) proposed in the National Assembly may also bring policy benefits to Circle. Zuller said that implementation of the bill will help New York-based Circle catch up with Tether in El Salvador, which has moved its headquarters to Bitcoin as legal tender.