TrendForce Jibang Consulting: Increased demand led to an increase in the 2Q25 server and PC DDR4 model combination price increase

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest survey by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, due to factors such as major DRAM suppliers gradually reducing server and PC DDR4 output and buyers actively preparing goods in advance, which supported the rise in server and PC DDR4 module prices in the second quarter, the increase is expected to be better than previous expectations, with increases of 18-23% and 13-18%, respectively.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that the life cycle of the DDR4 generation has been over 10 years, and demand is gradually being replaced by DDR5. In addition, the profit margins of products such as HBM, DDR5, and LPDDR5 (X) are all significantly higher. Major suppliers have planned to stop production of DDR4, and the final shipping time will be around the beginning of 2026. Currently, observe the supplier's EOL (end of life, end of life) notices for server and PC customers, while consumer DRAM is still DDR4 due to mainstream demand, and manufacturers will continue to ship DDR4 granular products.

After entering the second quarter, the general server construction requirements of cloud service providers (CSPs) remained steady, and storage server requirements were even upgraded in supporting AI Server applications, which helped to respond to the addition of DDR4 memory orders. In addition, in response to the strategic preparation of the original EOL, CSP also prompted TrendForce Jibang Consulting to adjust the price increase for server DDR4 modules in the second quarter, increasing 5-10% from the original quarter to 18-23%.

Changes in the international situation that occurred in early April led PC OEMs to demand that ODM increase production in advance and speed up delivery to the US channel to avoid subsequent uncertainty. As the supply and demand for server DDR4 becomes tight, there is a phenomenon of crowding out the supply of PC DDR4 with lower price per bit, which in turn boosts the room for price increases. As a result, TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates that the approximate price of the PC DDR4 model combination in the second quarter will increase by 13-18% in the quarter, a significant increase from the 3-8% increase previously estimated.

Looking ahead to the DDR4 contract price trend in the third quarter, supplier production strategies and tariff policies are the main uncertainties. It is not ruled out that with the gradual convergence of output from major suppliers, expected stocking demand will further drive up price increases higher than expected. TrendForce will continue to observe how the output strategies of DDR4's successor suppliers and the preparation strategies of downstream customers change.