CITIC Securities: Driverless cars have more than doubled, express delivery terminals cut costs to welcome opportunities
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the procurement volume of unmanned vehicles by major express delivery companies is expected to more than double in 2025. Procurement methods mainly include leasing and franchisee purchases, etc., and road access and network volume density have become the main prerequisites for the expansion of unmanned vehicles. If unmanned vehicles use the form of purchase and adopt appropriate assumptions to compare traditional fuel vehicles of similar size, the bank estimates that a single ticket cost of 0.1 to 0.2 yuan can be optimized by using unmanned vehicles for branch line delivery; relatively speaking, there may be room for cost optimization in the leasing form. Courier companies are using a differentiated approach in the procurement of unmanned vehicles. We look forward to the further opening of road rights, and that unmanned vehicles will enable express delivery terminals to reduce costs and speed up.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
matters
On May 27, Jiushi Intelligence released the E series unmanned logistics vehicle. The price of the bike dropped to 19,800 yuan. The price of the Z5, which was close in size, dropped significantly. At the same time, the company launched an FSD monthly subscription service with a unit price as low as 1,800 yuan/month, which is 10% lower than the previous FSD subscription price of the Z series of 2,000 yuan/month.
The procurement volume of unmanned vehicles by major express delivery companies is expected to more than double in 2025. The procurement methods mainly include leasing and franchisee purchases, etc., and the effects of terminal cost reduction may gradually become apparent
Looking at application scenarios, unmanned vehicle delivery has gone through many rounds of iteration, and at this stage it mainly penetrates low-speed branch line scenarios, such as terminal delivery in the logistics sector. In terms of scale, all major private express delivery companies have deployed unmanned vehicle delivery at this stage. Taking leading companies as an example, in 2024, the company has invested 800+ unmanned vehicles, covering various scenarios such as branch line connections, industrial parks, and campus delivery. In addition, e-commerce express delivery companies are also gradually deploying unmanned vehicles. In terms of procurement methods, according to major logistics company announcements and performance exchanges, the bank expects e-commerce express delivery companies to support franchisees to reduce costs in purchasing unmanned vehicles through various methods (such as providing guarantees, docking platforms, etc.), while the company mainly uses a leasing model for rapid layout. The bank anticipates that leading companies are expected to more than double their unmanned vehicle purchases in 2025.
Unmanned vehicles enable express delivery terminals to further reduce costs. Using appropriate assumptions, the bank estimates that the terminal can optimize the cost of a single ticket of 0.1 to 0.2 yuan by using unmanned vehicles for branch line delivery
The bank used the newly released Nine Intelligence E-Series as an example to calculate the potential cost reduction space for terminal applications compared to traditional fuel vehicles in terminal branch line delivery:
The branch line cost mainly consists of two parts: depreciation of means of transport+operating expenses (manual/FSD autonomous driving). In terms of transportation costs, the purchase price of a single unmanned vehicle of the Jiushi Smart E Series is 19,800 yuan. Based on a 5-year depreciation period, a single car is depreciated at 3,960 yuan per year. In terms of operating costs, unmanned vehicles mainly consider FSD+ charging costs. According to the FSD fee standard announced by Jiushi Intelligence, considering electricity expenses, the bank estimates that the operating cost of a bicycle is about 2,100 yuan/month (corresponding to 29,000/year). Considering the E6's volume of 6.5 cubic meters, the line assumes a full load of about 800 tickets each way. Assuming a daily delivery volume of 800/1200/1,600 tickets, and considering the additional manual handling costs required for the application of unmanned vehicles, the bank estimates that if a terminal unmanned vehicle is used, the branch line cost can be reduced to 0.5/0.52/0.55 yuan/ticket.
As a comparison, traditional fuel vehicles, on the one hand, have higher procurement costs (choose a traditional fuel vehicle that is close to the size and assume that the bicycle purchase cost is 70,000 yuan), and on the other hand, it is difficult to reduce the driver's labor costs+fuel costs (assuming the driver's salary is 8,000 yuan/month, and the fuel cost is 2,000 yuan/month). Based on the above assumptions, the bank calculated that the branch line cost for fuel vehicle delivery under the corresponding operating conditions was 0.57/0.63/0.75 yuan/ticket. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, unmanned vehicles are used to build a cost competitive advantage of 0.1 to 0.2 yuan for branch line costs. According to the official website of Jiushi Intelligence, by the end of 2024, the company had ordered more than 10,000 units, delivered more than 3,000 units, and served more than 600 customers; the number of new orders added by the company in 2025Q1 increased more than 4 times over the same period last year. In addition, some cities are gradually promoting the implementation of L4 legislation, and the intelligent driving industry chain continues to mature. It is expected that procurement costs for unmanned vehicles will decrease and technology iteration will continue to be upgraded, thereby increasing the penetration rate of driverless vehicle feeder scenarios.
Risk factors:
Macroeconomic growth is under pressure; unmanned vehicle expansion is slower than expected; labor costs have increased; oil prices have fluctuated beyond expectations; and industry price competition has intensified.