CITIC Securities: The singularity of autonomous driving has reached the point where commercialization is being implemented at an accelerated pace

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report stating that L4 level autonomous driving has shown positive changes in many scenarios. Among them, Robotaxi is benefiting from factors such as reduced vehicle costs and expansion of operating areas, and bicycle gross profit continues to improve; autonomous driving technology is implementing cost reduction and efficiency capabilities in various scenarios such as express delivery, mining, and ports, and is starting large-scale applications. The bank believes that under the above trend, all links in the industrial chain are expected to accelerate technology development and product launch, and the intelligent automobile industry chain is expected to benefit. The bank suggests focusing on the following main lines of investment: 1) Fleet operation: As autonomous driving technology continues to be iterated, fleet operators are expected to be the first to gain industry growth and achieve flexible performance; 2) leading suppliers of intelligent driving components; 3) OEMs with leading progress in intelligent driving research and development.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Robotaxi: Reduced vehicle costs led to a significant improvement in bicycle gross profit, and the global layout gradually opened

The Robotaxi market space is vast. The bank expects the domestic market size of Robotaxi to be about 300 billion yuan in 2030. On the policy side, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places all implemented new policies this year to further encourage the implementation of Robotaxi. Among them, the “Guangzhou Intelligent Connected Vehicle Innovation and Development Regulations”, which came into effect at the end of February 2025, proposed that Guangzhou will gradually and orderly promote the construction of a pilot zone for mixed human driving and autonomous driving throughout the city. Looking at leading companies, the seventh-generation Robotaxi of Little Pony Zhixing is based on cost-effective models, and the cost of related autonomous driving kits has also been reduced by 70% compared to the previous generation, which is expected to drive a significant improvement in bicycle gross profit, thereby increasing the willingness of related companies to launch vehicles. According to the Little Pony Smart Performance Exchange Meeting, the company plans to increase the size of the Robotaxi fleet to the level of 1,000 units by the end of this year. On the other hand, taxi prices in Europe and the US are significantly higher than at home, and bicycle models are expected to run faster. According to Waymo's official website, the company's weekly Robotaxi orders increased to 250,000 orders at the beginning of May this year (+400% year-on-year), and commercialization is progressing at an accelerated pace. According to Tesla's 2025 quarterly report performance exchange meeting, Tesla plans to start Robotaxi operations in Austin in June this year, which is expected to lead technological change within the industry.

Robovan: The urban open road scene with the most advanced commercialization progress, and leading companies are speeding up the expansion

Robovan currently uses the express delivery industry as its main application field, and is gradually penetrating into fresh food supermarkets, pharmaceutical cold chains, etc. According to the “Vehicle Road Cloud Integrated Intelligent Connected Vehicle Industry Output Value Growth Forecast (2025/2030)” prepared by the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers and other institutions, domestic urban terminal distribution and urban logistics distribution are expected to increase by 2030 to 977/141.6 billion yuan respectively. Judging from the scene attributes, Robovan is a low-speed, cargo scenario. The technical difficulty is low in open road scenarios, and it is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale application. On the policy side, the “Large-scale Transportation Equipment Renewal Action Plan” issued by 13 ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Transport in June 2024 proposed encouraging enterprises to use new energy unmanned delivery vehicles on a large scale in regions that meet the requirements. Leading companies are speeding up the acquisition of road rights. According to the Neolithic website, the company has obtained open road rights in more than 100 cities. Judging from the application results, according to the official website of Jiuji Intelligence, the company Robovan can reduce operating costs by more than 50% for customers. In May of this year, Jiushi Intelligence released an E6 model specifically for lightweight parts. The price was further lowered. The price of the bare car was 19,800 yuan, and the monthly FSD subscription price was only 1,800 yuan. By the end of 2024, Jiushi Intelligence had ordered more than 10,000 units, delivered more than 3,000 units, and served more than 600 customers; the number of new orders added by the company in 2025Q1 increased more than 4 times over the same period last year.

Robotruck: the landing scenario with the clearest demand for unmanned operation, continuous improvement in operation efficiency

Robotruck uses mines, ports, etc. as the main landing scenarios. The operating environment in these scenarios is poor, the aging trend is serious, and autonomous driving technology is required. Among them, there are major operational safety hazards in the mining scene, and the country continues to promote unmanned mining operations. In April 2024, seven departments including the State Mine Safety Supervision Administration proposed in the “Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting Intelligent Mine Construction and Promoting Mine Safety Development” that by 2026, the replacement rate of intelligent equipment or robots for dangerous and heavy duty jobs in coal mines and non-coal mines shall not be less than 30% and 20%, respectively. At present, leading companies have achieved 7*24 hours of normalized unmanned operation in some mining areas, and the efficiency of bicycles can reach up to 110% of manual driving. According to Cybercar data, in December 2024, the penetration rate of unmanned mine cards among new vehicles added to open pit mines was already close to 10%, and commercialization accelerated. Autonomous driving in ports also continues to penetrate. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of December 2024, 52 automated terminals have been built in China. According to Jingwei Hengrun's announcement, in 2024, the company's high-level autonomous driving business achieved revenue of 65 million yuan, +431.6% over the same period last year.

Risk factors:

The pace of promotion of intelligent driving technology is lower than expected; policy support for smart cars is lower than expected; the cost of intelligent driving falls short of expectations; and vicious incidents of intelligent driving have occurred.