In the four weeks up to June 1, Russian crude oil exports fell again because the sharp drop in export volume offset the first increase in the price of Russia's main export grade crude oil in nearly two months. Agency tanker tracking data shows that in the four weeks ending June 1, the average daily export volume was 3.24 million barrels, a decrease of 170,000 b/d from the statistical period ending May 25. At a meeting with major OPEC+ members last Saturday, Russia opposed the goal of a third sharp increase in production, indicating that Russia is more concerned about crude oil prices than production. This probably reflects that it may be difficult for Russia to increase production as much as is permitted. Russia's oil production data is confidential, so it's difficult to verify official data. Monitoring export levels over the next few weeks may be the best indicator of Russia's ability to increase production.

In the four weeks up to June 1, Russian crude oil exports fell again because the sharp drop in export volume offset the first increase in the price of Russia's main export grade crude oil in nearly two months. Agency tanker tracking data shows that in the four weeks ending June 1, the average daily export volume was 3.24 million barrels, a decrease of 170,000 b/d from the statistical period ending May 25. At a meeting with major OPEC+ members last Saturday, Russia opposed the goal of a third sharp increase in production, indicating that Russia is more concerned about crude oil prices than production. This probably reflects that it may be difficult for Russia to increase production as much as is permitted. Russia's oil production data is confidential, so it's difficult to verify official data. Monitoring export levels over the next few weeks may be the best indicator of Russia's ability to increase production.