US Stocks Likely To Open Higher After Federal Court Blocks Trump's Tariffs: 'Without Tariff Revenues, There Is A Big Beautiful Hole In The Big Beautiful Budget Bill,' Says Expert

Benzinga · 05/29 10:10

U.S. stock futures jumped on Thursday after ending lower on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices rose over 1% in premarket.

A federal court has invalidated global tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a move that could reshape future U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision challenged the extensive tariff authority previously wielded by the Trump administration and may impact ongoing trade strategies.

A three-judge panel, with appointees from the Reagan, Obama, and Trump eras, ruled that the IEEPA doesn’t give the president unlimited power to impose tariffs.

The Trump administration filed an appeal against the ruling in minutes, according to a Reuters report.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.52% and the two-year bond was at 4.03%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 97.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	1.12%
S&P 500	1.54%
Nasdaq 100	1.95%
Russell 2000	1.92%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, jumped in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 1.51% to $596.62, while the QQQ advanced 1.96% to $529.09, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones dropping over 200 points, as rising Treasury yields countered Tuesday’s trade optimism.

All S&P 500 sectors ended in the red, with utilities, materials, and energy stocks experiencing the most significant declines.

In retail, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) adjusted its annual forecast downward, citing impacts from tariffs, a slight dip in consumer discretionary spending, and an intensified promotional environment.

Conversely, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Economic data showed the composite manufacturing index in the U.S. Fifth District improving to -9 in May from -13 in April.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	-0.51%	19,100.94
S&P 500	-0.56%	5,888.55
Dow Jones	-0.58%	42,098.70
Russell 2000	-1.08%	2,067.80

Insights From Analysts:

After the Federal Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, Craig Shapiro, a macro strategist at the Bear Traps Report, said that “Without tariff revenues, there is a big beautiful hole in the big beautiful budget bill.”

This implied the administration’s promise to fund the deficit created by the tax bill through tariff revenue and the Department of Government Efficiency savings.

Shapiro’s post highlights a budget crisis that could be triggered by the removal of tariff revenue.

Without tariff revenues, there is a big beautiful hole in the big beautiful budget bill

Are the bond vigilantes with us in the room?
— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) May 29, 2025

Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds, highlighted an unprecedented "divergence" which he has "never seen" in his professional career outside of typical cyclical bottoms.

According to him, despite the seemingly extreme market optimism, the perspective from professionals analyzing data from the ground up painted a far more subdued picture.

He explained that aggressive market pricing stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic views held by bottom-up analysts, companies, and economists.

Elliott highlighted in an X thread that corporate earnings revisions for U.S. large-cap companies have notably collapsed, reaching their weakest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. Global earnings revisions also remain quite subdued, despite a marginal recent uptick in negativity.

Projections for 2025 earnings growth, which are typically skewed positively until just before the period, are currently penciled in at a mere 7%.

Stock and bond markets are all in on the "run it hot" trade.

But this market pricing is in sharp contrast to the bottoms up view of companies, analysts, and economists all of which remain quite pessimistic.

Thread.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday:

The initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 and the first quarter revised GDP data will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Pending home sales data for April will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at 10:40 a.m., Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at 2:00 p.m., San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 4:00 p.m., and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 8:45 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:BBY) jumped 5.01% in premarket on Thursday as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $9.22 billion, before the opening bell.
Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE:HRL) was 0.30% lower ahead of its earnings, which are supposed to be released before the opening bell. Analysts expect earnings of 34 cents per share on revenue of $2.91 billion.
Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) was up 2.27% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $13.15 billion, after the closing bell.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) was 0.48% higher ahead of its earnings, which are supposed to be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of $4.24 per share on revenue of $63.19 billion.
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) surged 5.10% after reporting first-quarter revenue of $44.1 billion, up 69% year-over-year and up 12% from the fourth quarter. The revenue beat a Street consensus estimate of $43.2 billion. Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share in the first quarter.
C3.ai Inc. (NYSE:AI) surged 17.29% after reporting better-than-expected fourth quarter results on Wednesday.
Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:CRM) was up 1.72% after delivering strong results and continuing to place its bets on the multitrillion-dollar opportunity arising from the digital labor revolution.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) advanced 2.63% after a strong set of earnings and guidance. The company said that it would not hike prices despite a $50 million cost incurred because of tariffs.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.34% to hover around $62.67 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.28% to hover around $3,279.89 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.14% at the 100.0170 level.

Asian markets closed higher on Thursday as South Korea's Kospi, China’s CSI 300, India's S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices rose. European markets were mixed in early trade.

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