Refute the rumor! Damo confirms that MRVL.US (MRVL.US) still holds the Microsoft (MSFT.US) AI chip order and maintains a target price of $90

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley released a research report to maintain the “wait and see” rating for Mewell Technology (MRVL.US). The target price is 90 US dollars.

Analyst Joseph Moore talked about the market's concerns about the future of Maywell Technology's business, particularly with regard to its second custom-built AI chip customer, which is widely believed to be Microsoft's (MSFT.US) Maia 2 project. Contrary to another agency's recent downgrade opinion, which argues that the Maywell Technology project may be replaced by Broadcom (AVGO.US), but Moore confirmed that industry checks showed that Maywell Technology is still retaining the design project.

Moore emphasized that Maywell Technology's first custom chip customer was Amazon (AMZN.US)'s Trainium 2 project, and the second was Google (GOOGL.US)'s custom ARM processor project. He pointed out that although Broadcom does intend to compete for this business, industry chain sources emphasized to Morgan Stanley that since the Maia 2 chip is entirely front-end designed by Maywell Technology, changing suppliers will involve a complicated multi-year process, and currently the design rights still belong to Maywell Technology.

Analysts specifically point to the high conversion costs of such alternatives. He explained that unlike the Trainium project, which mainly uses Microsoft's own design IP, Maia 2 is an overall design plan completed independently by Maywell Technology, which significantly increases the difficulty of converting suppliers.

Although Maywell Technology is optimistic about the progress of the project and expects to generate the first revenue in the second half of 2026, Morgan Stanley remains cautious. Citing historical data, Moore said that the success rate of first-generation ASIC chips was generally low, so even though the project progressed smoothly, it was still difficult to expect significant revenue in the first year.

Morgan Stanley finally concluded that although Mewell shares are still worth trading in the short term, their investment certainty is slightly lower than that of its peers due to a lack of revenue growth momentum that exceeds expectations. Based on this, the “hold and wait” rating and the target price of $90 remain unchanged.