Trade situation and demand prospects slow, Goldman Sachs predicts an increase in copper prices

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs raised its recent copper price forecast due to the easing of global trade tension and strong demand from China, the largest consumer country. In a report released on Wednesday, the bank raised its price forecast for the second quarter/third quarter from the previous price of $8,620 to $8,370 per ton to $9330 to $9150, as heavy US imports are expected to deplete inventory outside the US this quarter.

Goldman Sachs said this will tighten forward spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and curb new speculative short positions, thereby keeping copper prices high. This forecast also takes into account China's copper demand. Due to strong exports, China's copper demand will remain strong in 2025. However, demand is expected to slow in the third quarter as tariffs take effect.

Goldman Sachs's benchmark forecast is that global copper demand will slow sharply in the second half of this year, and the US will soon decide to impose tariffs on copper imports. However, the bank pointed out that if this decision is delayed until the end of 2025, it may disrupt copper trade flows and cause supply constraints outside the US (especially China) in the second half of the year.

In the long run, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the copper market will fall into a supply shortage in 2026, “driven by strong demand from electrification-related industries and limited growth in the mining industry.” The bank wrote that this should push prices from an expected low of $9,000 per ton in October 2025 to over $10,500 per ton by the end of 2026. Currently, the price of LME copper is reported to be around 9,500 US dollars per ton, which is close to the highest level in a month.