Dongwu Securities: Domestic sales and exports of motorcycles resonate, large emissions lead the way

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the Chinese motorcycle market is experiencing structural growth, and the core driving force is the increase in the penetration rate of high-displacement recreational motorcycles and the expansion of the export market. Domestic sales of high-displacement motorcycles reached 400,000 units in 2024, and the penetration rate rose to 7.5%. Compared with the Japanese market, there is still room for 2-14 times increase in penetration rate and ownership in the future. Domestic sales are expected to double to 800,000 units in 2030. In terms of exports, the overseas market size was nearly trillion yuan in 2024, and the large export share of Chinese brands was only 10.4%. The top three independent companies are rapidly seizing the global market through product innovation.

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

Export+large displacement are the two key words for the growth of the motorcycle market

Motorcycles can be divided into road vehicles (usually 150cc or less) and large-displacement recreational motorcycles (usually 250cc and above). The former has tool attributes, while the latter are consumer goods with self-pleasant+social attributes. The annual sales volume of motorcycles in China is 19 to 20 million units, and small-displacement products dominate. Historically, the motorcycle industry has experienced three stages of popularization, decline, and differentiated growth. Prior to 2008, motorcycle sales continued to grow as economic development and urbanization brought about channel demand; in 2008-2019, under the nationwide promotion of the motorcycle ban, motorcycles were replaced by electric two-wheelers and passenger cars; starting in 2020, the rise and exports of high-displacement amusement motorcycles led to structural growth in the motorcycle market.

From tools to consumer goods, high-displacement motorcycles have plenty of space

In the context of the contraction of the domestic oil and motorcycle market, high-displacement recreational motorcycles have sprung up along with the increase in demand for outdoor sports and the development of motorcycle culture. In 2019-2024, the total number of fuel-fueled motorcycles sold in the domestic market continued to decline from 7.71 million to 5.44 million, while domestic sales of high-displacement motorcycles of 250 cc or more increased from 110,000 to 400,000 units. The 5-year CAGR was 28.8%, and the penetration rate increased from 1.5% to 7.5%. Motorcycle racing and clubs that are gradually emerging in China continue to cultivate the market, and the market space is expected to open up further. Looking at the displacement segment, the displacement segment of domestic high-displacement motorcycles continues to be upgraded. In 2023 and before, it was mainly 250-400cc. In 2024, the proportion of 400-500cc models rapidly increased to 46.0%. From entry to advanced, players' demand for motorcycle performance gradually increased, and the displacement segment is expected to continue to upgrade. In Japan, which has similar cultural and ethnic characteristics to China, Japan's high-displacement penetration rate in 2024 was 16.7%, 2.3 times that of China, and the high-displacement sales/ownership volume per 10,000 people was 7.3/149.8 vehicles, 3/14.5 times that of China, respectively. It can be seen that there is still plenty of space for high-displacement motorcycles in China. It is expected that in 2030, China's high-displacement domestic sales will double to 800,000 vehicles, with a CAGR of 12% in 24-30 6.

Overseas trillion market reshapes growth space for Chinese brands

In terms of sales, the overseas motorcycle market sold more than 40 million units in 2024, with a large displacement of about 3.44 million units, which is 8-9 times the domestic space; in terms of revenue, in 2024, the overseas motorcycle market was 932 billion yuan, nearly a trillion yuan market. According to the Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, in 2024, Chinese brand motorcycles were exported 1.02 million, with an overseas share of 25.7%, of which 359,000 vehicles were exported with large displacement. The penetration rate of high-displacement exports was only 3.3%, and the overseas share of large displacement was 10.4%. There is plenty of room for improvement, and there is great potential for exports. At this stage, motorcycle exports are still dominated by small emissions. Most of them are in the OEM model. Large displacement exports have accelerated since 23, and the CAGR is 67.6% in 22-24, and the influence of independent brands overseas has gradually increased.

The top three autonomous brands Chunfeng/Longxin/Qianjiang lead the high-emission market

Chunfeng Power: Focusing on high-displacement products, it has been ranked first in high-displacement for 24 years. In 2019-2024, the total sales volume of Chunfeng motorcycles increased from 45,000 units to 308,000 units, with a 5-year CAGR of 47.1%. In terms of product structure, Chunfeng focused on high-displacement products. In 24-year sales, high-displacement products accounted for 49%, and the high-displacement market share ranked first in 24.

Longxin GM: The foundation is Tonglu Vehicle OEM, and the Wuji brand is strong and rising. In 2019-2024, Longxin motorcycle sales increased from 961,000 units to 1.803 million units, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.4%. Structurally, it is mainly small-displacement road vehicles. In 2018, Longxin launched its own brand Wugi and entered the high-displacement amusement motorcycle market. In 2019-2024, the sales volume of Longxin GM's high-displacement motorcycles increased from 21,000 units to 108,000 units, a 5-year CAGR of 38.6%, and its market share increased from 11.9% to 14.3%. Starting in 2023, Wuji will start a strong product cycle. Every year, the number of new products will increase, models will expand, and the ability to launch explosives will increase significantly.

Qianjiang Motor: Complete product matrix and strong ability to promote new developments. In 2021-2024, Qianjiang motorcycle sales increased from 385,000 units to 440,000 units, with a 3-year CAGR of 4.5%, showing an overall upward trend. Among them, high-displacement sales increased from 52,000 to 127,000 units, with a 5-year CAGR of 19.7%, mainly following market growth. The market share of large displacement declined from 29.1% to 16.8% in 2019-2024. Qianjiang has leading product promotion capabilities. Every year from 2022 to 2024, the number of new high-displacement products is ahead of its peers, and the product matrix is perfect.

Risk warning: Overseas economic fluctuations, motorcycle market price war, trade war intensification