Shanxi Securities: After the first quarterly report, the outlook for AI computing power is still optimistic, domestic computing power may welcome stronger growth in the second half of the year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shanxi Securities released a research report saying that the cloud giant's capital expenditure outlook was determined, and core companies such as optical modules and copper connectivity showed a high growth rate in the first quarter. Currently, the factors suppressing overseas chains are mainly at the valuation level. The subsequent release of GPT5 and DeepSeekR2 is thought to have a “qualitative breakthrough,” and it is difficult to fundamentally adjust the 2026 computing power investment outlook; at the same time, it is difficult to anticipate a marginal deterioration in the Trump administration's tariff policy, so investing in overseas AI chains currently has a good margin of safety.

As for the AIDC circuit, since it takes time for new production capacity investment to be converted into revenue, the current market is mainly driven by expectations as a preliminary indicator of production capacity investment. Due to changes in H20 sales control policies, domestic computing power will usher in a faster import window in the second half of the year, and I am optimistic about the domestic computing power industry chain represented by Shengteng, Haiguang, Cambrian, and Mu Xi.

The main views of Shanxi Securities are as follows:

Overseas computing power: Cloud giants' capital expenditure forecasts have been determined, and core companies such as optical modules and copper connectivity showed higher growth rates in the first quarter

Last week, Google released its 25Q1 financial report. The company reported a 28% year-on-year increase in revenue in the cloud division. The growth rate of GCP in core and AI products was far higher than the overall revenue growth rate of Cloud, so continued investment in AI infrastructure has become a necessary condition to support the growth of core business. The company's capital expenditure for the first quarter was US$17.2 billion (+43% YoY), while the capital expenditure for the whole year will reach 75 billion US dollars (+43% YoY), mainly invested in servers and data centers. However, in response to the news that Amazon suspended some data center leasing plans last week, the Amazon CEO made it clear to the media that the company has not reduced the scale of data center construction, and that the relevant adjustments are “regular capacity management” and “there are no fundamental adjustments in the expansion plan recently.”

Under strong capital expenditure, the track performance of optical modules, PCBs, copper connections, and power supplies is highly deterministic. Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, Tianfu Communications, Shijia Photonics, Liante Technology, and Optical Bank Technology's non-return profits in the first quarter were +58%, +383%, +23%, +11456%, +276%, and +83%, respectively. Optical modules and the upstream core supply chain will fully benefit. In terms of copper connections, Wall Nuclear Materials and Dingtong Technology reported net profit of +39% and +212% year-on-year, respectively, and Huizhou Leting Intelligent Link, a core subsidiary of Wall Communications High Speed Line, in 2024, revenue and profit were +47% and +111%, respectively.

Currently, the factors suppressing overseas chains are mainly at the valuation level. The subsequent release of GPT5 and DeepSeekR2 is thought to have a “qualitative breakthrough,” and it is difficult to fundamentally adjust the 2026 computing power investment outlook; at the same time, it is difficult to anticipate a marginal deterioration in the Trump administration's tariff policy, so investing in overseas AI chains currently has a good margin of safety.

Domestic computing power: There are many positive signs in AIDC and upstream infra quarterly reports. Domestic computing power may welcome stronger growth in the second half of the year

As for the AIDC circuit, since it takes time for additional production capacity investment to be converted into revenue, the current market is mainly driven by expectations as a preliminary indicator of capacity investment. The fixed assets+projects under construction of Runze Technology, Aofei Data, Guanghuan New Network, Kehua Data, and Dawei Technology all increased dramatically over the same period last year. The increase in capital expenditure will drive HVDC, precision air conditioning, diesel, cabinets, MPO optical fiber, etc. to take the lead in receiving orders, and the AIInfra Circuit's semi-annual performance outlook is optimistic.

Due to changes in the H20 sales control policy, domestic computing power will usher in a faster introduction window in the second half of the year, and I am optimistic about the domestic computing power industry chain represented by Shengteng, Haiguang, Cambrian, and Mu Xi. At the same time, supernode technology is the most prominent competitive advantage of the Huawei 910C cluster. Mobile-led OISA and Tencent-led ETH-X will lead domestic AI chips to form unified supernode technology standards, and supporting switching chips, copper connections, and optical modules are expected to be released in 2026.

Downstream orders for military informatization have recovered significantly, and I am optimistic about the investment direction represented by intelligent, low-cost, and collaborative combat

The pace of “flight-based” launch of the two major constellations of satellite internet, Starnet and Kakinobu, has begun. The second half of the year is expected to drive a new batch of satellite support payloads, antenna industry chain inventory replenishment, and the first round of ground-based terminal collection. At the same time, direct mobile phone satellite experimental stars have already been launched, which is expected to drive investment in new technology themes such as digital phased arrays, interplanetary laser networking, and new mobile phone radio frequency modules.

It is recommended to focus on the target

Optical Communications: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), Xinyisheng (300502.SZ), Shijia Photonics (688313.SH), Optical Bank Technology (300620.SZ), Cambridge Technology (603083.SH), Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH), Huagong Technology (000988.SZ), Guangxun Technology (002281.SZ).

Copper connections: Wall Nuclear Materials (002130.SZ), Dingtong Technology (688668.SH), Jin Xinnuo (300252.SZ), Huafeng Technology (688629.SH), Yihua Co., Ltd. (002897.SZ).

Domestic computing power: Cambrian Era (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Super Communications (603322.SH), Senke Communications (), Ziguang Co., Ltd. (000938.SZ). 688702.SH

Military informatization: Chengchang Technology (001270.SZ), Zhenlei Technology (688270.SH), Changyingtong (688143.SH), Bangyan Technology (688132.SH), Zhimingda (). 688636.SH

Risk Alerts

Demand for overseas computing power fell short of expectations, domestic operators and Internet investments fell short of expectations, fierce market competition led to price drops exceeding expectations, and external sanctions escalated.