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Analysts Are Updating Their HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Simply Wall St · 05/02/2025 06:08

Investors in HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.8% to close at €9.15 following the release of its first-quarter results. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in HelloFresh. Read for free now.
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XTRA:HFG Earnings and Revenue Growth May 2nd 2025

After the latest results, the consensus from HelloFresh's 14 analysts is for revenues of €7.22b in 2025, which would reflect a small 3.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with HelloFresh forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.10 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.35 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for HelloFresh

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €11.74, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HelloFresh at €18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that HelloFresh's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HelloFresh's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple HelloFresh analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for HelloFresh you should be aware of.