Everbright Securities: Low-altitude economy and broad robot market space are expected to drive demand space for lightweight carbon fiber

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities published a research report saying that the low-altitude economy and the broad market space for robots are expected to drive the demand space for lightweight carbon fiber. On March 10, the General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on “Certain Policies and Measures to Promote the Innovation and Development of the Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry in Guangdong Province”. Various regions have also successively issued stimulus policies for the low-altitude economy and robotics. Along with the release and restoration of demand for terminals such as the low-altitude economy and aerospace, leading manufacturers with high-end high-performance carbon fiber batch production capabilities will clearly benefit. Based on demand itself and supply chain safety considerations, Everbright Securities believes that domestic carbon fiber equipment companies will benefit in this context. On the carbon fiber equipment side, Everbright Securities suggests focusing on Seiko Technology (002006.SZ).

Everbright Securities's views are as follows:

Various regions have successively issued stimulus policies for the low-altitude economy and robots, which is expected to drive carbon fiber demand space

On February 25, 2025, the 6th session of the 7th Shenzhen People's Congress was held. Shenzhen Mayor Qin Weizhong made a report on the work of the government. The report proposed that Shenzhen will make every effort to compete for new circuits in artificial intelligence, low altitude and aerospace industries, further implement the “artificial intelligence +” operation, enrich the development of artificial intelligence terminal products, accelerate the construction of a comprehensive national low-altitude economic industry demonstration zone, strive for pilot urban air traffic management, and take the lead in achieving full coverage of the world's first city-wide integrated space and space sensing network.

The low-altitude economy and broad market space for robots are expected to drive the demand space for carbon fiber, a lightweight material. In terms of the low-altitude economy, 449 general airports, 32 flight service stations, and more than 440 drone routes have been built and registered across the country in '24. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China's forecast, China's low-altitude economy market will reach 1.5 trillion yuan in '25, and is expected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan in '35. In terms of robots, GGI expects the global humanoid robot market to be about US$1,017 billion in 24, reach US$15 billion by 30, the CAGR will exceed 56% in 24-30, and global sales will grow from 11,900 units to 605,700 units.

Carbon fiber prices are gradually stabilizing, and high-performance low-cost manufacturers are expected to stand out

At present, the decline in carbon fiber prices has initially slowed down. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, domestic carbon fiber prices have remained at the level of 83.5 yuan/kg since December '24. Currently, the operating rate of the carbon fiber industry is still at a low level. As of March 7, '25, the operating rate of the domestic carbon fiber industry was 47.76%, a year-on-year change of -1.2pct. The reduction in the price of carbon fiber products and the decline in gross profit levels put pressure on the performance of carbon fiber manufacturers. As of March 7, '25, the average gross profit of the carbon fiber industry was -18,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2 million yuan/ton over the previous month.

However, Everbright Securities believes that with the stabilization of carbon fiber prices, the profit situation of leading manufacturers with scale advantages and cost advantages will gradually improve. At the same time, along with the release and restoration of demand for terminals such as the low-altitude economy and aerospace, leading manufacturers with high-end high-performance carbon fiber batch production capabilities will clearly benefit. The carbon fiber material Duangguangda Securities recommended focusing on Jilin Chemical Fiber, Jilin Carbon Valley, and Zhongfu Condor.

In anticipation of a boost in carbon fiber demand, domestic equipment manufacturers such as Seiko Technology will also benefit simultaneously

Carbon fiber preparation processes and equipment are critical to the production of carbon fiber. However, due to the complicated preparation process of carbon fiber, there are many process parameters involved, and it takes a long period of time to accumulate these parameters. At the same time, overseas companies have always blocked and banned the sale of such equipment. At a time when the low-altitude economy is developing rapidly, domestic demand for carbon fiber will also be boosted, and demand for core key equipment will also grow at the same time. Based on demand itself and supply chain security considerations, Everbright Securities believes that domestic carbon fiber equipment companies will benefit in this context. On the carbon fiber equipment side, Everbright Securities suggests focusing on Seiko Technology. In 2020, Seiko Technology became the first domestic enterprise to achieve nationwide production of kiloton carbon fiber production line equipment. It is the only domestic supplier of complete line equipment, with a domestic market share of more than 50%.

Risk analysis: the risk that raw materials will fall rapidly and remain high, and downstream demand will fall short of expectations.