Shanghai Securities: DeepSeek's big model strengthens AI applications and accelerates focus on semiconductor core material opportunities such as photoresists and polishing pads

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shanghai Securities released a research report saying that in terms of the real estate chain, it is expected that the market will stop falling and stabilize. First, it is recommended to focus on leading consumer building materials leaders with resilient performance, such as Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), etc.; second, focus on the release of chemical debt combinations, which benefit from improved cash flow, downstream demand comes from high-receivables companies for municipal projects; third, focus on opportunities for enterprises to go overseas. In terms of new materials, the DeepSeek model enhances the acceleration of AI applications, increases the demand for superimposed hardware upgrades and iterations, accelerates demand for key semiconductor materials and domestic substitution, focuses on opportunities for core semiconductor materials such as photoresists and polishing pads. It is recommended to focus on the release of performance of leading electronic materials platform-based companies, and it is recommended to focus on Tongcheng New Materials (603650.SH), etc.

The main views of Shanghai Securities are as follows:

New materials:

Demand has exploded, production capacity for high-end chips has been compressed, and the price of SanDisk memory chips has increased. Recently, global storage giant SanDisk issued a notice that the prices of all consumer-facing storage products will increase by more than 10% since April 1. The price of memory chips has risen. First, on the supply side, including major manufacturers such as Samsung and Hynix, began cutting production last year, and high-end memory chip production capacity was compressed; second, on the demand side, storage demand has increased dramatically with the explosion of AI applications. Memory chips are one of the important branches of the semiconductor industry. Upstream raw materials mainly include silicon wafers, photoresists, CMP polishing solutions, etc. As industry demand grows, it is recommended to focus on leading manufacturers and the domestic substitution process for key links in the industrial chain.

Building materials:

The conflict between supply and demand was resolved, the “430” and “530” new policies came into effect, and the price increase for photovoltaic glass ushered in March.

According to Steel Union data, the price of photovoltaic glass increased in March. In terms of the latest prices, the market prices of 2mm coating and 3.2mm coating for photovoltaic glass increased by 2 yuan/square meter and 1.5 yuan/square meter respectively on March 7. Judging from the factors driving the price increase, one is that the conflict between supply and demand was eased in March. Second, photovoltaic glass has been operating at a low level for a long time since the second half of 2024, and companies are facing loss pressure, so the company has the intention of raising prices to improve profits. At the same time, the fermentation of the “430” and “530” new policies is also driving the photovoltaic industry to rush to install machines, leading to an increase in demand for photovoltaic glass.

Industry key data tracking:

Cement: In the past week (3.3-3.7), the national average price of cement was 508.39 yuan/ton on March 7, a slight increase of 0.4% from week to week. Looking at the subregion, East China and Central South China rose by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. In terms of consumption, the country's cement shipments were 2,075,500 tons in the week of March 7, a change of +32.5% from week to week, and cement consumption continued to recover; the cement clinker storage volume ratio for the week of March 7 was 53.58%, a change of -0.31 percentage points from week to week.

Continued recovery, and the cement market gradually heated up in March. Since March, the cement market has continued to recover. According to centennial construction information, from March 4 to 5, mainstream brand cement companies in the Yangtze River Delta announced increases one after another. Among them, the price of high-standard cement rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the price of low-standard cement rose by 20 yuan/ton. The price of cement has risen, and the price of cement is running strongly. On the one hand, on the supply side, enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta stopped kilns in the first quarter, causing clinker inventories to grow slowly; on the other hand, demand gradually grew as downstream demand basically recovered, and every year March-May was also the peak period for cement growth.

Flat glass: In terms of inventory over the past week (3.3-3.7), glass sample companies stocked 69.548 million weight boxes on March 7, an increase of 2,413 million weight boxes over the previous month, an increase of 3.59% over the previous month, further accumulating stocks. In terms of production, on March 7, the daily production of float glass was 157,200 tons, which was flat from week to week. On the cost side, soda ash prices were +1.23% month-on-week on March 7; in terms of inventory, as of March 6, soda ash companies had inventories of 1.7599 million tons, down 1.28% month-on-month.

The price of float glass is under pressure and inventory growth is under pressure. First, on the demand side, recovery after the Spring Festival was limited, orders did not improve much, and demand was limited; second, on the supply side, judging from the company's production plans, there is an expectation that supply will pick up.

Photovoltaic glass: In terms of prices in the past week (3.3-3.7), the market price of 2mm coating and 3.2mm coating for photovoltaic glass on March 7 was 14 yuan/square meter and 21 yuan/square meter respectively, increasing by 2 yuan/square meter and 1.5 yuan/square meter, respectively; on the supply side, the operating rate on March 7 was 67.39%, flat from month to month.

Glass fiber: The price of glass fiber wrapped direct yarn 2400tex remained flat in the past week (3.3-3.7).

Carbon fiber: Prices of various varieties have remained stable over the past week (3.3-3.7).

Risk Alerts

Macroeconomic downside risks, policy implementation falls short of expectations, real estate industry recovery falls short of expectations; statistical samples cause data differences; AI applications fall short of expectations.