Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | “East rises and west” is already trending. There are various reasons to speculate on consumption in the market

[Anatomy Dashboard]

The biggest topic in the market today is “rising from east to west”. Overnight, US stocks can be called “bloodshed.” The NASDAQ closed down 4% to the biggest daily decline since September 2022, and S&P, which closed down 2.7%, both hit new closing lows since September last year. The Dow fell nearly 2.1%, equalizing gains since the US election in November last year. The total market value of the seven largest US technology stocks shrunk by nearly 760 billion US dollars in a single day, or about 5.5 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, China's A shares are all flourishing, Hong Kong stocks are opening lower and higher, and the Hang Seng Index is close to closing in the red market.

I'm not surprised at all about the decline in US stocks. Look at yesterday's release: “It's OK for US stocks to fall, but they can't derail; don't cause financial risks. This is something that the Hong Kong stock market is very worried about. Why are funds afraid to work hard, that's the reason.” Although it was predicted that it would fall, I really didn't expect it to fall this much; it was almost impossible to get away with it. However, bosses always say they want to “reflect,” while Duan Yongping believes that “the bubble is not broken, it is very difficult to invest, and enjoy short positions.” Regarding “East rises and west falls,” this column already shouted this slogan on February 26.

The US recession theory has received partial approval. On March 10, local time, former US Treasury Secretary Summers wrote in a post on social media platform X: “I think the possibility of a recession does exist. “There is a core reason, an economic policy that is completely counterproductive.” Strictly speaking, this is only one reason; if you expand it, it's too much content. Anyway, the conclusion is: the weakening of US stocks is already difficult to reverse. “East rises and west falls” is a trend. This column already shouted this slogan on February 26. Although the capital we see now is running more towards Europe, running east is an important option over time.

US stocks are also being weakened within the US. Citi downgraded the US stock rating from increasing its holdings to neutral, and at the same time raised the rating of Chinese stocks to increasing its holdings, saying that the US exception theory has at least been suspended. Citibank said that considering the strength of China's technology industry, government support for the industry, and low valuations, even after the stock market soared, the Chinese stock market was still quite attractive. As mentioned earlier, the battle between MAGA and LGBT has never stopped.

According to an announcement from the Chinese Embassy in the US, Xie Feng, the Chinese ambassador to the US, was invited to deliver a special address at the US session of the “China in Spring” global media dialogue yesterday (10th): China has become a major trading partner in more than 150 countries and regions. In January of this year, investment in China by Britain, South Korea, and the Netherlands increased by 324%, 104%, and 76%; the “Foreign Investment Withdrawal from China Theory” declared bankruptcy. “China's big market is a must” is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. This is a very good time.

Tesla (TSLA.US) plummeted 15.4% the night after (10th). Since closing at a record high of $479.86 on December 17 last year, the stock price has plummeted 54%, and the market value has evaporated by more than 800 billion US dollars. Musk said, “It's very difficult to balance the business, but we can't let the US go bankrupt; it will take another year.” It seems that the richest man is really not for money, but for a breath of “gas.” But to be honest, according to Tesla, only a few car companies have taken the world, and their valuations are still so high, and storytelling accounts for more than half. However, Chinese car companies are more likely to work hard. As a result of hard work, competitiveness is strong. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data on the 11th. From January to February, NEV production, sales and exports both increased by more than 50% year on year. From January to February, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.903 million units and 1.835 million units, respectively, up 52% and 52% year-on-year, respectively. New energy vehicle sales reached 40.3% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, exports of new energy vehicles were 282,000 units, an increase of 54.5% over the previous year. The results are all chosen by the market. This is not something that can be stopped by using trade barriers. Today, Xiaopeng (09868) once again surged more than 9%, and NIO (09866) rose nearly 10%.

Following the release of the GO-1, a large general-purpose smart model yesterday, Zhiyuan Robotics is releasing a new “second release” today - the bipedal humanoid robot Ling Si X2. In addition to regular walking, running, and dancing, the Lingxi X2 can also lift weights, ride scooters, play balance bikes, and ride bikes. This shows that robots are constantly evolving. The valuation of this track has also increased quite rapidly. According to A report by The Information on the 20th, Figure AI is seeking Series C financing of 1 billion to 2 billion US dollars, with a valuation as high as 40 billion US dollars. That figure is more than 15 times its valuation of $2.6 billion a year ago. Yuejiang Technology (02432) released the world's first “dexterous operation+straight knee walking” self-contained intelligent humanoid robot on March 11. It can enable multiple devices to collaborate across scenarios to perform complex operational generalization tasks. This robot, named Dobot Atom, is a full-scale bionic humanoid robot for industrial-grade fine operation. It is equipped with a self-developed neuro-driven dexterous operating system NDS and AWS, a human-like straight-knee walking system, leading the deep implementation of personalized intelligence technology in various scenarios such as industry and service. As soon as new results are produced, the market will vigorously pursue them, and today it has surged by more than 11%.

Crossover is here again. March 11. Zhu Jiangming, chairman of Zero Sports Auto (09863), revealed that the company has now formed a humanoid robot research team of several dozen people, and the project is in the preliminary research stage. “Car companies have this ability, and in the future they will mainly be used for assembly of vehicle production lines.” There are fewer people, but car companies have innate conditions, which is also a highlight. Today, it also surged by more than 13%. Now many car companies are using robots, including Xiaomi (01810), Xiaopeng, and BYD (01211).

AI news continues. On March 13, the “Cloud Intelligence Gathering Energy to Build a New Future for the AI Industry - Artificial Intelligence and Controlled Cloud Computing Industry Ecology Conference” will be held in Hangzhou on March 13, guided by the Hangzhou Economic and Credit Bureau and the Hangzhou Data Resources Bureau and hosted by Zhejiang Computing Power Technology. According to market sources, DeepSeek's next-generation AI model, DeepSEEK-R2, may be officially released as early as next Monday (March 17). DeepSeek-R2 has achieved breakthroughs in several key areas, including better programming ability, multi-language reasoning ability, and higher accuracy at a lower cost. Experts believe that these characteristics, if realized, could give them a significant advantage in the global AI competition. This could be another revaluation opportunity for asset prices. Huiliang Technology (01860), Jinshanyun (03896), and Kuaishou-W (01024) are once again sought after.

The consumer sector is also showing outstanding performance today, but there are various reasons for the rise. 1. Prices of agricultural products are expected. After the sharp rise in egg prices in the US and Mexico border “egg smuggling” cases, the US is now experiencing another type of “wonder” caused by the sharp rise in food prices: coffee bean theft cases have surged; over the past year, the price of coffee bean futures has soared more than twice. On the Japanese side, the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries shows that the price of rice in Japanese supermarkets has risen 90% compared to a year ago. The reason is that many people are hoarding rice, which has led to a sharp drop in market supply. Regardless of the cause, such as the US bird flu or Japan's sense of safety, the market is definitely expecting price increases for agricultural products. Therefore, related superior animal husbandry (09858), COFCO Jiajiakang (01610), unified enterprise (00220), and Zhenjiu Li Du (06979) have found reasons for the rise; 2. Expectations of recovery, such as cosmetics Mao Geping (01318), Giant Bio (02367), the trendy bubble mart (09992), and e-cigarettes Smore International (06969)), Gold, an old luxury store of gold (06181 ), the restaurant's Yihai International (01579), etc.; 3. Combined with the more aggressive ones that have just been selected for Hong Kong Stock Connect, such as Mao Geping and Little Vegetable Garden (00999), all rose by nearly 10%.

Regarding the collapse in US stocks, the question of whether Trump will bail out the market, I feel that if he can save it, he will bounce back; we should always give them a chance to rest. It is estimated that the trick Trump can come up with is to play the Eastern card. According to a report by Hong Kong's “South China Morning Post”, the leaders of China and the US will meet in China next month. Can the spokesperson confirm this? In response, Mao Ning said, “I don't have any information to post about your question.” Everyone knows this is wishful thinking, but I hope the market estimates can be put to good use.

[Section Focus]

On March 17, 2025, the Nvidia GTC conference will soon be held in San Jose, California, USA. This world-renowned technology event will focus on “hardware innovation”, and the GB300 AI server and AI robots will be the focus. In addition to GB300, the market is also paying close attention to the architecture design of Nvidia's next-generation platform Rubin at the GTC conference. The biggest change is that the NVLink connection part of the high-speed data transmission will use an orthogonal structure, using a high-multi-layer board of mixed PTFE. As the transmission rate jumps from 112 Gbps to 224 Gbps, traditional PPO resin materials can no longer meet high-frequency signal requirements. The combination of low-loss PTFE resin+HVLP5 copper foil is just what is needed, and HVLP5 copper foil will be used with PTFE. As a result, the value of the PCB link has greatly increased, and high-frequency high-speed HVLP5 copper foil is expected to become the core of future Nvidia server connections (HVLP5 high-frequency high-speed copper foil connections have outstanding advantages over traditional copper connections). In this computing power arms race, PCBs (printed circuit boards), as the core component of cabinet servers, are ushering in a flashpoint of technological iteration.

The main varieties in the Hong Kong stock market: Jiantao Laminate (01888) and Jiantao Group (00148).

[Individual Stock Mining]

China Aviation Science and Industry (02357): Europe's huge defense spending orders are worth expecting, and the low-altitude economy is ready to go

The Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress revealed that China's defense spending budget for 2025 was 1784.665 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the previous year, maintaining a growth rate of over 7% for the fourth consecutive year. China Aviation Optoelectronics's total revenue in 2024 was 20.69 billion yuan, up 3.07% year on year; net profit attributable to AVIC shareholders was 3.361 billion yuan, up 0.65% year on year.

Comment: Currently, Germany is vigorously increasing defense spending, and Europe is expected to keep up. European military orders are worth looking forward to. The company's business runs through the aviation industry chain. The four A-share listed companies controlled by Zhongzhi, Hongdu Airlines, China Aviation Optoelectronics, and China Aviation Aircraft have formed core competitiveness in the middle and downstream businesses of the aviation industry chain. AVIC is deeply involved in the low-altitude economy and works with subsidiaries to drive the development of the low-altitude economy. Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of the company, is the main force with the largest scale, highest output value, and most complete product range in the domestic helicopter manufacturing industry. The company's helicopter products are more compatible with the civilian market, and it has completed coverage of a full range of ultra-light, light, medium, and large helicopters. Since 2022, the company has continued to advance important asset restructuring projects. Its subsidiary China Aviation Electronics Company absorbed and merged China Aviation Electromechanical through a share exchange, then changed its name to “China Aviation Aircraft”. In addition, another subsidiary, Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Hafei and Changfei companies. Recently, Hafei Group plans to transfer all of its shares in Zhongzhi shares to China Aviation Technology and Industry. The company formed a high-speed electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle (h-EVTOL) technology plan in June 2023. Arms replacement is imminent, and the foreign trade business may become a growth point for the trainer aircraft industry; large domestic aircraft are injecting new volume, and many of the company's companies are core suppliers.

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