Open Source Securities 2025 Social Service Spring Investment Strategy: Trendy Fun and National Manga Co-prosper, Oriental Aesthetics Reshape the Brand Pattern

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that in 2025, the domestic cultural industry system completed a structural breakthrough, Chaowan and Guoman achieved symbiosis and co-prosperity through IP ecological collaboration, and Oriental Aesthetics is reshaping the high-end brand pattern. Among them, under the trend of domestic IP going overseas, leading companies with strong commercialization capabilities, user base and channel layout will continue to benefit; “IP+” extends and expands trillion-level market space across categories, breakthroughs in AI technology accelerate the implementation of smart toy applications; Oriental aesthetics helps increase the value of luxury goods and beauty brands through cultural empowerment, and the integration of intangible heritage techniques and modern design pushes domestic brands to go international.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Trendy Fun: Trendy Fun coexists and co-prospers with national comics, and jewelry+IP transcends culture and fashion

(1) Structural breakthrough in the domestic cultural industry. 2024 may be the first year for Chinese culture to go overseas

The 2025 Spring Festival “Nezha 2” became another phenomenal cultural product following “Black Myth Goku”. It represents the gradual transformation of the domestic ACG industry from “art experiments” to an “industrial system” with multiple forces of policy support, technological iteration, capital attention and cultural self-confidence, driving the improvement of industrial chains such as technology, talent, capital, and business operation models, contributing to the ecological prosperity of the domestic IP industry. Rooted in Chinese culture, the core group of Trendy Games and National Animation (game) have a high degree of overlap. In particular, when domestic cultural products and brands go overseas, they form “light symbols” to lower the cognitive threshold, and animation uses “renarration” to deepen the double breakthrough of cultural identity. I am optimistic that leading brands with strong IP commercialization capabilities, a solid brand user base, and a broad terminal channel layout will benefit from the development dividends of the domestic IP industry.

Beneficiaries: Bubble Mart (09992), Bruco (00325), Mingchuang Premium (09896).

(2) Pay attention to the “IP+” cross-category trend market space:

i.IP jewelry: Jewelry IP co-branding is showing a booming trend. Tiffany has launched a Pokémon co-branded model, Bubble Mart has launched an independent jewelry brand. The unit price is in line with Pandora, and three pop-up stores have already opened.

ii. Food Play: In 2024, the domestic market reached the trillion level. IPs such as McDonald's, KFC, and Lucky became popular. Traditional food games such as Little Raccoon became memory classics, verifying that the “Food + Play” circuit is evergreen and booming. At the same time, startup food and play brands are growing rapidly. Card Games, Bubble Mart, and Huali Technology are entering the market, and new products are being launched one after another.

iii. smart toys: The smart toy market for children and adults is growing rapidly. The global smart toy market is expected to reach US$109.98 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 26.08%, which is far higher than the traditional toy market; with the recent Deepseek triggering large model cost cuts, bridging the cost gap between enterprises and AI technology, the implementation of AI companion applications is expected to accelerate in the future.

(3) Second-hand trendy games: Compared with luxury goods and Disney, looking at the development path of second-hand trendy games, the importance of a healthy and sustainable consumer ecosystem is prominent in the growth of brand and IP value. Combining measures to rectify scalpers is essentially protecting long-term brand image. Continued supply of classic models to satisfy mass consumption. The product strategy of stabilizing the circle with limited premiums can bring maximum economic benefits.

Oriental aesthetics: traditional culture and modern elements collide to establish the brand's leading position

Oriental Aesthetics is using a new attitude to help domestic brands on the path of high-end upgrading. In 2024, Chinese topics will maintain a high trend. According to data from Qiangua, the number of related straw notes increased by 71%, and the number of commercial notes increased by 168%. Many luxury brands apply Chinese intangible heritage techniques to product design, such as Chanel x Lacquer Art, Burberry x Bamboo Weaving, etc. Chinese blessing elements are widely used in luxury goods, such as the Van Cleef & Arpels four-leaf clover series, which represents good fortune. In December 2024, the efficiency of Van Cleef & Arpels's single store in China was 16.95 million yuan, an increase of 14% over the previous year.

(1) Luxury goods: Among the top 15 luxury brands in the world, 12 are from Europe, and cultural heritage plays a key role in bonding with the royal family

As early as the 18th century, the “Chinese fever” swept through Europe. Traditional Chinese oriental aesthetics enjoyed high praise in the global fashion industry and art circles. Opening up the country with media such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu is expected to help the brand expand rapidly. Bubble Mart's high-end collection MEGA series introduces the ancient techniques of pastel porcelain and wood carving, blending gorgeous, complex, and delicate design ingenuity with luxurious classical aesthetics. It has launched two top products, “Glazed Porcelain” and “No Traces in Hidden Gold · Wood”, which are highly sought after by second-hand collectors.

(2) Beauty: Oriental aesthetics empowers the beauty industry through cultural traceability, product design integration, and makeup style interpretation

The steady growth in the scale of China's cosmetics exports is underpinned by Chinese cultural heritage. Take Hanaxizi as an example. In terms of cultural overseas, Chinese culture is shown through various aspects such as product design, product introduction, and scientific research formulations. Oriental aesthetics supports brands to shine overseas. In terms of marketing, promoting the beauty of Oriental aesthetics received attention. When Mao Geping went overseas, he focused on the “Forbidden City” cooperation model in product selection, which emphasized the nobility of imperial use in the imperial court and a sense of ceremony of use. Imperial royal brands have advantages in overseas promotion and high-end promotion.

Beneficial target: Mao Geping (01318).

Risk warning: domestic and global macroeconomic fluctuations; project implementation falling short of expectations; retail falling short of expectations; increased industry competition brought about by new entrants or existing competitors, etc.