Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688408)

Key Insights

• Arctech Solar Holding's estimated fair value is CN¥82.14 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Arctech Solar Holding's CN¥84.92 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The CN¥86.13 analyst price target for 688408 is 4.9% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688408) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Arctech Solar Holding

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥470.0m	CN¥636.0m	CN¥764.5m	CN¥879.1m	CN¥978.9m	CN¥1.06b	CN¥1.14b	CN¥1.21b	CN¥1.26b	CN¥1.32b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 20.20%	Est @ 14.99%	Est @ 11.35%	Est @ 8.80%	Est @ 7.02%	Est @ 5.77%	Est @ 4.89%	Est @ 4.28%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%	CN¥433	CN¥540	CN¥598	CN¥634	CN¥650	CN¥652	CN¥643	CN¥627	CN¥606	CN¥582

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.3b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.9%) = CN¥24b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥24b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)¹⁰= CN¥11b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥17b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥84.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Arctech Solar Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.138. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Arctech Solar Holding

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Arctech Solar Holding, there are three important items you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Arctech Solar Holding (of which 2 are significant!) you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does 688408's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.