Index Options
CME Group
Nasdaq
Cboe
TradingView
Wall Street JournalVale to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What You Should Know
Vale S.A. VALE is expected to report declines in its bottom and top lines when it reports third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 25, after market close.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $10.09 billion, indicating a 5% decrease from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 9.3% over the past 60 days to 49 cents per share. The figure indicates a 25.8% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History
VALE's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 7.98%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q3 Performance
Vale recently provided its third-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 91 Mt, up 5.5% year over year, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2018. This can be attributed to improved operating performance at S11D, Itabira and Brucutu. Pellet production rose 13% year over year to 10.4 Mt. Iron production came slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90.4 Mt.
Iron ore fines sales dipped 0.5% from the year-ago quarter's level to 69.3 Mt while pellet sales rose 17.8% to 10.1 Mt. However, the average realized iron ore fines price was $90.60 per ton, down 13.8% year over year due to lower iron ore prices. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 8% to $148.2 per ton.
The Iron Solutions segment accounts for around 93% of Vale’s revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for iron ore revenues is pegged at $6.4 billion, indicating a 13% decline year over year. Gains from improved pellet sales volumes are likely to have been somewhat offset by reduced iron ore fines sales as well as lower iron prices. The consensus mark for pellets revenues is pinned at $1.18 billion, indicating a 15% decline from the year-ago quarter's level.
Nickel sales were recorded at 40.7 kt, up 3.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The figure was lower than the consensus estimate of 45 kt.
The average realized nickel price was $17,012 per ton, down 20% from the year-ago quarter's figure. This reflected a decrease in LME nickel reference prices, partially offset by higher realized premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for nickel revenues is pegged at $870.7 million, indicating a 15% decline year over year owing to lower prices.
Vale sold 75.2 kt of copper in the third quarter, which was 1.9% higher than the prior-year quarter's figure. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92.6 kt.
The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $9,016 per ton, up 16.6% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $9,053 per ton.
The consensus estimate for copper revenues is pegged at $974 million, indicating a 48% surge from the year-ago quarter's figure. This reflects higher sales and improved year-over-year prices.
Overall, Vale’s revenues are likely to have gained from higher sales volumes for copper, nickel and pellet as well as elevated copper prices compared with the year-ago quarter. This is expected to have been offset by lower iron ore fines sales volume as well as reduced prices for iron ore and nickel.
The company has been facing higher input costs, particularly diesel and freight costs, in the past few quarters. This is likely to have weighed on its margins. However, cost-control efforts are expected to have negated some of this impact.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is -18.84%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Price Performance
In a year, shares of Vale have lost 16.7%, in line with the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.69% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 96 cents per share.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, slated to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.08% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The consensus mark for CF’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.05 per share.
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +15.63%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings is currently pegged at 16 cents per share. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days
Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."
Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.7% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention.
See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
VALE S.A. (VALE): Free Stock Analysis Report
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report