Dongxing Securities: Housing prices in various tier cities continued to decline month-on-month in September, second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell the most month-on-month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that the central government's policy goals for the real estate market are changing from maintaining stability to promoting stability, and the implementation of subsequent policies will continue to be active. The current real estate demand-side policy is conducive to the stabilization of the core city market with good support on the demand side. China Resources Land (01109), China Resources Land (01109), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), and Greentown China (03900) are expected to benefit. Strengthening the “white list” and the principle of marketization have a good credit support effect for high-quality housing enterprises that still have market-based management capabilities, and Longhu Group (00960) and others are expected to benefit.

Dongxing Securities's main views are as follows:

In September 2024, out of 70 large and medium-sized cities, housing prices in all tier cities continued to decline month-on-month, with second-hand housing in first-tier cities falling the most month-on-month. The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing sales prices in all tier cities has increased. Month-on-month: In September, sales prices of new homes continued to fall month-on-month in all tier cities. The first-tier decline increased, and the decline in third-tier cities narrowed. Second-hand housing sales prices in various tier cities continued to fall month-on-month. The decline in first-tier cities increased, and the decline in second-tier cities narrowed.

In September, the sales price index for newly built commercial homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities grew at a month-on-month rate of -0.7%, compared with the previous value of -0.7%.

In September, the sales price index for newly built commercial residential homes in first-tier cities grew by -0.5% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of -0.3%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou were -0.7%, 0.6%, -1.0%, and -0.9%, respectively. The sales price index for newly built commercial residential homes in second-tier cities grew -0.7% month-on-month, with a previous value of -0.7%; the sales price index for newly built commercial residential homes in third-tier cities grew -0.7% month-on-month, with a previous value of -0.8%.

In September, the second-hand housing price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities grew at a month-on-month rate of -0.9%, compared with the previous value of -0.9%. In September, the second-hand housing price index in first-tier cities grew at a month-on-month rate of -1.2%, compared with the previous value of -0.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou were -1.3%, -1.2%, -1.3%, and -1.1%, respectively. The second-hand housing price index in second-tier cities grew at -0.9% month-on-month, and the previous value was -1.0%; the second-hand housing price index in third-tier cities grew at -0.9% month-on-month, and the previous value was -0.9%.

YoY: The year-on-year decline in new home sales prices in all tier cities increased in September, and the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing sales prices in all tier cities increased.

In September, the year-on-year growth rate of newly built commercial residential sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities was -6.1%, compared with the previous value of -5.7%.

In September, the year-on-year growth rate of newly built commercial residential sales price index in first-tier cities was -4.7%, compared with the previous value of -4.2%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou were -4.6%, 4.9%, -8.6%, and -10.3%, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of the newly built commercial residential sales price index in second-tier cities was -5.7%, the previous value was -5.3%; the year-on-year growth rate of the newly built commercial residential sales price index in third-tier cities was -6.6%, and the previous value was -6.2%.

In September, the second-hand housing price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities grew at a year-on-year rate of -9.0%, compared with the previous value of -8.6%. In September, the year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing price index in first-tier cities was -10.7%, compared with the previous value of -9.4%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou were -10.3%, -7.6%, -12.0%, and -12.8%, respectively. The second-hand housing price index in second-tier cities grew at -8.9% year on year, and the previous value was -8.6%; the year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing price index in third-tier cities was -9.0%, compared with the previous value of -8.5%.

Investment advice: We believe that the central government's policy goals for the real estate market are changing from maintaining stability to promoting stability, and the implementation of subsequent policies will continue to be active. The current demand-side real estate policy is conducive to stabilizing the market in core cities with good support on the demand side. China Resources Land, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China are expected to benefit. Strengthening the “white list” and the principle of marketization have a good credit support effect for high-quality housing enterprises that still have market-based management capabilities, and Longhu Group and others are expected to benefit.

Risk warning: Risk of continued decline in profitability, risk of sales falling short of expectations, risk of significant asset depreciation.