Estimating The Fair Value Of Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP)

Simply Wall St · 10/18 11:19

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Shopify fair value estimate is US$84.43
  • With US$81.63 share price, Shopify appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • Analyst price target for SHOP is US$81.89 which is 3.0% below our fair value estimate

Does the October share price for Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Shopify

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.77b US$2.38b US$3.18b US$4.04b US$4.69b US$5.25b US$5.73b US$6.14b US$6.49b US$6.80b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x25 Analyst x11 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Est @ 16.07% Est @ 12.00% Est @ 9.15% Est @ 7.15% Est @ 5.76% Est @ 4.78%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0% US$1.7k US$2.1k US$2.6k US$3.1k US$3.3k US$3.5k US$3.6k US$3.6k US$3.5k US$3.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$30b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.8b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.0%– 2.5%) = US$155b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$155b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= US$79b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$109b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$81.6, the company appears about fair value at a 3.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NYSE:SHOP Discounted Cash Flow October 18th 2024

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shopify as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.093. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Shopify

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • No major weaknesses identified for SHOP.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Shopify, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should look at:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Shopify we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does SHOP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.