National Bureau of Statistics: With the introduction and implementation of a package of real estate policies, we are optimistic about the real estate market in the later stages

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on October 18, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2024. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the conference that with the introduction and implementation of a package of real estate policies, he is optimistic about the real estate market in the later stages. Judging from recent changes in the expectations of real estate practitioners and actual transactions during the “Eleventh” Golden Week, we have reason to be optimistic about future real estate trends. Recently, a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted on real estate development companies and intermediaries in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Real estate practitioners said that the share of new housing workers who said they were optimistic about operating in September increased by 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, and second-hand housing increased 6.5 percentage points. The effect of this increase in confidence is very obvious.

Sheng Laiyun pointed out that a series of policies and incremental policies introduced by the central government to stabilize growth, stabilize the real estate market, and stabilize market expectations are playing a positive role. There is also a process of implementing some policies. We hope that all regions will quickly introduce corresponding rules and step up implementation of the various policies and measures already introduced by the central government, so that these policies can unleash greater potential and consolidate the steady upward trend in the economy.

The original text is as follows:

The State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2024

Shou Xiaoli, Director of the Information Bureau of the Information Office of the State Council and press spokesman:

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen! Welcome to the press conference of the Information Office of the State Council. Today, we are releasing economic data on a regular basis. We invite Mr. Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, to introduce the performance of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2024 and answer everyone's concerns.

Next, let's first ask Mr. Sheng Laiyun to give an introduction.

Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics:

Good morning to all media friends, ladies and gentlemen! I am very happy to come back to the State Information Office to share with you the state of operation of the national economy.

As is customary, I will first inform you about the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters, and then answer everyone's concerns.

The national economy was running steadily and steadily in the first three quarters, and positive factors increased cumulatively.

In the first three quarters, in the face of the complex and severe external environment and new situations and problems in the operation of the domestic economy, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, departments in all regions thoroughly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general tone of steady progress and progress, increased macroeconomic control efforts, focused on deepening reform and opening-up, expanding domestic demand, optimizing the economic structure, effectively implementing stock policies, and stepping up incremental policies. The overall operation of the national economy is stable and progressive, production demand is growing steadily, employment prices are generally stable, and people's livelihood security is strong. New quality productivity is developing steadily High-quality development progressed steadily. Most production demand indicators improved in September, market expectations improved, and positive factors driving the economic recovery to a positive cumulative increase.

According to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 949.74.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% over the previous year at constant prices. By industry, the primary sector added value of 5773.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year; the secondary sector added value of 36136.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%; and the tertiary sector added value of 530.61 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7%. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, and 4.6% in the third quarter. On a month-on-month basis, the gross domestic product increased by 0.9% in the third quarter.

1. The agricultural production situation is relatively good, and the animal husbandry industry is generally stable

In the first three quarters, agricultural (planting) value added increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The country's total production of summer grains and early rice was 177.95 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 2.0%. The fall harvest is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that there will be another good harvest throughout the year. In the first three quarters, pork, beef, lamb and poultry production was 70.44 million tons, up 1.0% year on year. Among them, beef and poultry production increased by 4.6% and 6.4% respectively, pork and lamb production decreased by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively; milk production decreased by 0.1%, and egg production increased by 3.5%. At the end of the third quarter, 426.94 million pigs were kept, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; in the first three quarters, 520.3 million pigs were released, a decrease of 3.2%.

2. Industrial production is growing steadily, and the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry are growing rapidly

In the first three quarters, the value added of industries above the national scale increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Looking at the three major categories, the value added of the mining industry increased by 2.9% year on year, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 6.3%. The value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.5% year on year, and the value added of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.1%. The growth rate was 1.7 and 3.3 percentage points faster than industries of all sizes, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-owned enterprises increased by 4.3% year on year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.1%; foreign-invested enterprises, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 3.9%; and private enterprises increased by 5.5%. By product, production of new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, and 3D printing equipment products increased by 33.8%, 26.0%, and 25.4%, respectively, over the same period last year. In September, the value added of large-scale industries increased 5.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the previous month; 0.59% month-on-month. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of enterprise production and operation activity was 52.0%. In January-August, industrial enterprises above the national scale achieved a total profit of 465.2.7 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year.

3. The service industry continues to recover, and the modern service industry is developing well

The value added of the service sector increased 4.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail industries increased by 11.3%, 10.1%, 6.8%, 6.3%, and 5.4%, respectively. In September, the national service industry production index increased 5.1% year on year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month. Among them, production indices for information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and financial services increased by 11.4%, 9.7%, and 6.5%, respectively. In January-August, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased 7.7% year-on-year. In September, the index of business activity in the service sector was 49.9%, and the expected index of business activity in the service sector was 54.6%. Among them, the index of business activity in industries such as postal services, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, and monetary and financial services is in a high boom range of 55.0% or more.

Sheng Lai Yun:

4. Market sales continue to grow, and sales of upgraded products are improving

In the first three quarters, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 35356.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year. According to the location of the business unit, retail sales of urban consumer goods amounted to 30586.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year; retail sales of rural consumer goods amounted to 4769.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%. By type of consumption, retail sales of goods amounted to 31414.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0%; food and beverage revenue was 3941.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2%. Sales of some basic lifestyle products and upgraded products were good. Retail sales of food, food, and beverage products per unit above the limit increased by 9.9% and 4.5% respectively; retail sales of communication equipment and sports and entertainment products increased by 11.9% and 9.7% respectively. Online retail sales nationwide reached 10,893 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the previous year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods reached 9072.1 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales of social consumer goods. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2% year on year, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month; up 0.39% month on month. Sales of products such as automobiles and home appliances improved. In September, retail sales of household appliances, audio and video equipment, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies by units above the limit increased by 20.5%, 12.3%, and 10.0% respectively; retail sales of automobiles and furniture products all increased by 0.4%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive. In the first three quarters, retail sales of services increased 6.7% year over year.

5. The scale of fixed asset investment continues to expand, and investment in high-tech industries is growing rapidly

In the first three quarters, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37897.8 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year; after deducting investment in real estate development, the country's fixed asset investment increased 7.7%. By sector, infrastructure investment increased 4.1% year-on-year, investment in manufacturing increased 9.2%, and investment in real estate development fell 10.1%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 702.84 million square meters, down 17.1% year on year. The decline was 1.9 and 0.9 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year and January-August, respectively; sales of newly built commercial housing were 6888 billion yuan, down 22.7%, and the decline was 2.3 and 0.9 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year and January-August, respectively. By industry, investment in the primary sector increased by 2.3% year on year, investment in the secondary sector increased by 12.3%, and investment in the tertiary sector decreased by 0.7%. Private investment declined by 0.2%; after deducting investment in real estate development, private investment increased by 6.4%. Investment in high-tech industries increased 10.0% year-on-year, with investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increasing by 9.4% and 11.4% respectively. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, and the electronics and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 34.1% and 10.3% respectively; in the high-tech service industry, investment in professional technical services, e-commerce services, and services for transforming scientific and technological achievements increased by 31.8%, 14.8%, and 14.8% respectively. In September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 0.65% month-on-month.

6. Import and export of goods are growing rapidly, and the trade structure continues to be optimized

In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of goods was 322.52 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year. Among them, exports amounted to 186.14.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; imports amounted to 13710.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%. Imports and exports offset, resulting in a trade surplus of 490.43 billion yuan. Private enterprise imports and exports increased by 9.4%, accounting for 55.0% of total imports and exports, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Imports and exports to the “Belt and Road” countries increased by 6.3%, accounting for 47.1% of total imports and exports. Exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.0%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports. In September, the total import and export volume was 3748 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year. Among them, exports amounted to 2165.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6%; imports amounted to 1582.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5%.

Sheng Lai Yun:

7. Consumer prices have risen moderately, while prices for industrial producers have declined

In the first three quarters, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.3% year on year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. By category, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol fell 0.4%, the price of clothing rose 1.5%, the price of housing rose 0.1%, the price of household goods and services rose 0.7%, the price of transportation and communication fell 1.3%, the price of education, culture and entertainment rose 1.7%, the price of health care rose 1.4%, and the price of other goods and services rose 3.4%. Among food, tobacco and alcohol prices, the price of fresh fruit fell by 4.7%, the price of food rose by 0.2%, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 3.3%, and the price of pork increased by 5.8%. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.5% year over year. In September, consumer prices across the country rose 0.4% year on year and remained flat from month to month.

In the first three quarters, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers across the country fell 2.0% year on year, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year. Among them, the year-on-year decline in September was 2.8%, and the month-on-month decrease was 0.6%. In the first three quarters, the purchase price of industrial producers fell 2.1% year on year. Among them, the year-on-year decline in September was 2.2%, and the month-on-month decrease was 0.8%.

8. The employment situation is generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate has declined slightly

In the first three quarters, the average unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. In September, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate in the local household registration labor force survey was 5.2%; the unemployment rate in the foreign household registration labor survey was 4.8%, of which the unemployment rate in the foreign agricultural household registration labor survey was 4.6%. The unemployment rate in the urban survey of 31 major cities was 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working time of employees in enterprises across the country is 48.8 hours. At the end of the third quarter, the total number of rural laborers working outside the home was 19.14 million, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year.

9. The income of residents continues to grow, and the income of rural residents is growing faster than that of urban residents

In the first three quarters, the country's per capita disposable income was 30,941 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in nominal terms. Excluding price factors, the actual increase was 4.9%. According to the place of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 41,183 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.5% over the previous year, an actual increase of 4.2%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 16,740 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.6% over the previous year, and an actual increase of 6.3%. In terms of revenue sources, per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income, and net transfer income of the country's residents increased nominally by 5.7%, 6.4%, 1.2%, and 4.9%, respectively. The median per capita disposable income of the country's residents was 25,978 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.9% over the same period last year.

Overall, the economy was generally running smoothly, steadily, and progressing in the first three quarters. Policy effects continued to show, and there have been positive changes in the main economic indicators recently. At the same time, it is also important to note that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and the foundation for a positive economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, we must adhere to Xi Jinping's ideology of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and the Second and Third Plenums of the 20th CPC Central Committee, earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, strengthen the synergy between stock policies and incremental policies, and promote the accelerated implementation of various policies, consolidate and enhance the positive momentum of economic recovery, and strive to complete the tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

The above are the main indicators of the operation of the national economy for the first three quarters that I have shared with you. Below, I'll be happy to answer everyone's concerns.

Xiaoli Shou:

Thank you, Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun, for the introduction. Now let's move on to the questioning session. Please inform your news agency before asking questions. Please start asking questions by raising your hands.

CCTV reporter at the general station:

Since this year, China's economy has generally been running smoothly, but some new problems and new situations have also emerged. How do you evaluate the economic performance of the first three quarters and the performance of the third quarter? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. Since this year, the domestic and foreign environment has been complex and varied, the external environment has become chaotic and intertwined, and risks and challenges have increased. The domestic economy is at a critical stage of structural adjustment and transformation. Cyclical contradictions and structural contradictions are intertwined, and the pain of adjustment is being unleashed. Faced with the new situation and problems that have arisen in the middle of economic operation, the Party Central Committee oversaw the overall situation, faced up to difficulties, made scientific decisions, and strengthened macro-control in a timely manner. In particular, in late September, an important meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was held to speed up the introduction of a package of incremental policies, which greatly enhanced market confidence and stimulated market vitality. Overall, in the first three quarters, the national economy was generally running smoothly and steadily. In September, there were positive changes in the main economic indicators, and the positive factors driving the upward trend of the economy increased cumulatively. Judging from the data for the first three quarters, the economic performance of the first three quarters had three outstanding characteristics:

First, although growth in the second and third quarters fluctuated slightly, the overall trend of the steady operation of the national economy did not change from a cumulative perspective. Judging from the four major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment, inflation, and balance of payments, the economy was generally stable in the first three quarters. I just released the data. The economy grew 4.8% in the first three quarters, with 5.3% growth in the first quarter, 4.7% growth in the second quarter, and 4.6% growth in the third quarter. These indicators did not fluctuate much and were close to the expected targets. Employment and commodity prices are also generally stable. In the first three quarters, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.1%, and in the first half of the year it was also 5.1%. Among them, 5.0% was in the second quarter and 5.2% in the third quarter. The overall unemployment rate in the survey was relatively stable. The consumer price index uses this to reflect the degree of change in inflation. In the first three quarters, the consumer price index rose by an average of 0.3%. The first quarter was flat year on year; it rose 0.3% in the second quarter, and rose 0.5% in the third quarter. Also, the balance of payments is basically balanced. The overall foreign trade situation this year was better than expected. In the first three quarters, exports increased by 6.2%, and our foreign exchange reserves returned to 3.3 trillion US dollars. Therefore, judging from the four major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment, inflation, and balance of payments, the economy was generally running smoothly in the first three quarters, and the overall tone of steady operation remained unchanged.

Second, the general trend of steady promotion of high-quality development has not changed. We are now at a critical stage of transformation and upgrading. Our main task is to promote the transformation of development methods and push the economy towards high-quality development. All regions fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development concept in the first three quarters, unswervingly promoted high-quality economic development, and continued to achieve new achievements in the five dimensions of innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing. In terms of innovation and development, in the first three quarters, investment in high-tech industries continued to grow at a relatively rapid rate. The value added of large-scale high-tech manufacturing increased 9.1% year-on-year, 3.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industries above scale. From the perspective of coordinated development, whether it is the industrial structure, demand structure, or regional structure, it continues to move in the direction of coordinated development. In the middle of the industrial structure, the value added of the manufacturing industry continues to increase as a share of value added above scale. Judging from the demand structure, the share of investment in high-tech industries continues to increase. In terms of green development, the green industry, represented by the “new triad” of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, continues to maintain high double-digit growth. Production and consumption of wind power, nuclear power, photovoltaic power generation, etc. have maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. In terms of open development, all regions are unswervingly promoting a high level of opening-up to the outside world, and exports can maintain a 6.2% growth rate under the complex and changing international situation. The export growth rate to the “Belt and Road” countries is even higher than this average growth rate. In terms of shared development, the growth rate of residents' income in the first three quarters was slightly higher than the GDP growth rate, and people's livelihood security was strong and effective. Food security and energy security achieved new results, and grain production continued to have a new good harvest this year. Therefore, from these dimensions, we can see that under the premise of maintaining reasonable quantitative growth, the Chinese economy is optimizing the structure of economic development, improving quality, and the general trend of steady and progressive high-quality development has not changed.

Third, it is also something I would like to focus on communicating with my friends. In September, there were positive changes in the national economy. Most indicators improved marginally, and economic operations showed a steady upward trend. Under the influence of a series of policy effects, especially after an important meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was held in late September, a package of incremental policies was introduced at an accelerated pace. These policies greatly enhanced market confidence, changed business expectations, and enhanced market vitality. Judging from the main indicators for September, there were positive changes in economic performance. First, in terms of production, whether it is industrial production or service production, there is a marginal improvement. The value added of large-scale industries increased 5.4% year on year in September, up 0.9 percentage points from August. This is the first time that the industrial growth rate has stopped falling and rebounded for 4 months. The service sector production index increased by 5.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from August. Also, in terms of demand, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2% in September, up 1.1 percentage points from August. In January-September, fixed asset investment increased 3.4% year on year, the same level as in January-August, but don't underestimate this flat rate, because this is the first time that the growth rate of fixed asset investment has stopped falling and stabilized for many months. Also, judging from market expectations, there is a positive marginal improvement. Our manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from August. Among them, the production index was 51.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. We also conducted a business survey of 100,000 large enterprises. Among them, the share of industrial enterprises above the scale with optimistic operating conditions in the fourth quarter increased 1.3 percentage points month-on-month, and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. Therefore, these conditions reflect that market expectations are indeed improving positively. In addition, there was another positive change in September, and the stock market and housing market are becoming more dynamic. Stock turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell 15.3% in August, but there was a sharp increase in September, and the volume increased by 32.7%. Real estate market transactions are becoming more active. Although the sales area and sales amount are still being adjusted, the cumulative decline is narrowing. During the National Day, everyone also saw online reports. The number of people looking at housing, including real estate transactions, is clearly picking up, so market activity is increasing.

From these levels, we judge that there were positive changes in macroeconomic performance in September, showing a steady upward trend. Of course, we are also clearly aware that at present, these changes are still preliminary, and the basis for a positive economic recovery is not strong. In the next stage, it is necessary to earnestly implement the central government's decisions and arrangements, speed up the implementation of a package of incremental policies and stock policies already in place, form policy synergy, consolidate the steady upward trend in the economy, and continue to promote economic improvement, structural improvement, and development. Thanks!

Red Star News Reporter:

Since this year, two new policies, adjustments and optimization of real estate policies, and a series of macro-control measures have been introduced, such as issuing and using ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds. How effective are these measures now? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. In response to the new situations and problems that have arisen in the operation of the economy this year, the Party Central Committee made a scientific decision and promptly introduced a series of policies and measures to support the stable operation of the economy, including the large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policies you just mentioned, and the adjustment and optimization of real estate, as well as a series of policy measures such as issuing and using ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds. In particular, I mentioned earlier that in late September, the central government stepped up efforts to introduce a package of incremental policies. These policies have strongly boosted market confidence. Some policies have already been implemented, and the effects of the policies are gradually showing; some policies are still being introduced at an accelerated pace, and there is still a process of showing the effects of the policies.

Judging from the policies already introduced in the first three quarters, the effect of the policy is quite obvious. Here are a few sets of data. I'll let you know; I'll summarize them into “five effective ones.”

First, these policies have effectively unleashed the potential of domestic demand. In terms of consumption, under the influence of the consumer goods trade-in policy, retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment per unit above the limit increased 4.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Among these, retail sales of automobiles, home appliances, office supplies, household and other products involving the trade-in policy were even more obvious in September. In July, the relevant departments specifically issued “Certain Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-In”, arranging about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the implementation of the “two new” policies. Various regions have also speeded up the introduction of some rules, so in September, these policies had a positive impact on the current month's consumption. In September, automobile retail sales increased by 0.4%. This is a correction for the month after several months of continuous decline in automobile retail sales and a 7.3% decline in August. Retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment increased by 20.5% in September, a sharp increase of 17.1 percentage points over August. The cultural office supplies category increased by 10% in September and decreased by 1.9% last month. Retail sales in the furniture category also changed from negative to positive in September. Judging from these aspects of the situation, the “two new” policies have had a positive effect on consumption and also had a positive exemplary effect on investment. Here's a report. In the first three quarters, investment in equipment and tool purchases increased 16.4% year-on-year, 13 percentage points faster than total investment, driving total investment growth of 2.1 percentage points, with a contribution rate of more than 60%.

Second, it has effectively promoted the production of related industries and products. This is an effect of the “two new” policies from the production side. I will also share with you some data: In the first three quarters, ship and related equipment manufacturing, radio and television equipment manufacturing, and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 20.5%, 19.8%, and 12.9% year-on-year. These three industries were driven by large-scale equipment updates, and all grew relatively fast. Production of food manufacturing machinery, special equipment for processing agricultural products, and special packaging equipment increased by 38.1%, 34.6%, and 11.8%, respectively. In the first three quarters, production of new energy vehicles increased by 33.8%, production of related charging stations increased by 57.2%, and products such as household refrigerators, air conditioners, and smart TVs also achieved relatively rapid growth.

Third, it has effectively promoted a steady recovery in the economy. This is a natural result, because there have been positive changes on both the production side and the demand side. Major indicators such as industry, services, investment, and retail have all changed positively. Many production demand indicators improved marginally in September, and the economy showed a steady trend.

Fourth, it has effectively improved market expectations. Macroeconomic policies have continued to be strengthened, effectively boosting market confidence, and enterprises are optimistic about business conditions in the fourth quarter. The manufacturing PMI in September rose 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the production index rose 1.4 percentage points. The operating conditions of some key monitored enterprises, whether in traditional or emerging industries, showed a marked increase in prosperity.

Fifth, it has effectively boosted market activity. Looking at the financial market, both the stock market and the real estate market have rebounded. The stock market has clearly rebounded, and the real estate market's turnover tends to be active.

Looking at these five dimensions, we believe that a series of policies and incremental policies introduced by the central government to stabilize growth, stabilize the real estate market, and stabilize market expectations are playing a positive role. There is also a process of implementing some policies. We hope that all regions will quickly introduce corresponding rules and step up implementation of the various policies and measures already introduced by the central government, so that these policies can unleash greater potential and consolidate the steady upward trend in the economy. Thanks!

Hong Kong South China Morning Post Reporter:

My question is about real estate. Can you talk more about the current state of the real estate industry. According to the latest data, has the real estate industry improved since the “May 17” New Deal? Recently, many new policies have been introduced. What do you think of the next trend? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. The real estate market has continued to be adjusted over the past two years, so in order to stabilize the real estate market, the central government and various regions have introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market in the past two years, including the “May 17” new real estate policy you just mentioned, and a series of policies and measures introduced by relevant departments after the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee to stop and stabilize the real estate market since September. Yesterday, I also noticed that several departments held a press conference here to fully reveal the meaning, initiatives, and effects of real estate policies, so I feel the same as everyone else. These policies and measures are playing a positive role in stabilizing real estate, enhancing confidence in the real estate market.

Judging from our statistics, in the first three quarters, real estate policies played a positive role in stopping the decline in real estate and stabilizing. I just shared with you a few sets of data. Judging from real estate development investment, although it was still negative 10.1% in January-September, the decline was slightly narrower than in January-August, which is a positive sign. Whether it is real estate sales area or sales amount, although it is still being adjusted, the decline is narrowing. The decline in sales area of newly built commercial housing was 1.9 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year, and it has been narrowing for 4 consecutive months, and the sales amount has been narrowing for 5 consecutive months. Furthermore, the relevant departments of the central government support real estate companies to increase liquidity, so the decline in funds available to real estate development companies this year also narrowed in January-September. Compared with the first half of the year, it was 2.6 percentage points narrower, and the decline narrowed for 6 consecutive months. Therefore, judging from these situations, we feel that the effects of policies related to real estate are gradually being unleashed, and real estate is moving in the direction of stopping falling and stabilizing.

With the introduction and implementation of a package of real estate policies, we are optimistic about the real estate market in the later stages. Because everyone already learned from the press conference yesterday, the current package of policies to stop falling and stabilize real estate is still very strong, and involves multiple departments at multiple levels, and implementation will definitely have a positive effect. Judging from recent changes in the expectations of our real estate practitioners and actual transactions during the “Eleventh” Golden Week, we have reason to be optimistic about future real estate trends. Here, I will also share with you two statistics. We recently conducted a monthly questionnaire survey of real estate development companies and intermediaries in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Real estate practitioners said that in September, the share of new housing workers who said they were optimistic about their operations increased by 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, and second-hand housing increased 6.5 percentage points. The effect of this increase in confidence is very obvious.

Furthermore, everyone has already noticed changes in the real estate situation during the 11th Golden Week of the National Day, and there has been a marked improvement in the number of visits and transactions of some real estate properties. Among them, I noticed that some market agencies have incomplete statistics. During the 11th Golden Week, the transaction area of new housing increased by 102%, and the area of second-hand housing transactions increased by 205%. These changes are all very obvious. So we have reason to believe that there will be positive changes in the real estate market. Thank you.

First Financial Correspondent:

We have also seen that new macroeconomic policies have recently been introduced. How will the economy perform in the fourth quarter? Also, with more than two months left until the end of the year, can the annual GDP growth rate reach the target of around 5%? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. I know everyone is very concerned about economic trends in the fourth quarter. Judging from the economic performance in the first three quarters and the effects of the implementation of the incremental policy, we believe that favorable conditions for a steady economic recovery are increasing, and confidence in achieving the expected target of around 5% is increasing.

First, GDP grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving the target for the whole year. The 4.8% growth rate in the first three quarters was hard to come by. Since this year, the macroeconomic environment has been complex and varied. In particular, external pressure has continued to increase. The internal structure is also in a critical period of structural adjustment, and the pain of structural adjustment continues to unleash. However, the Chinese economy has withstood the pressure, and the economy is running smoothly. This fully proves that the Chinese economy has strong resilience and potential, and this growth rate is a foundation for the economy to continue to recover in the future.

Second, there were positive changes in economic performance in September, which strengthened our confidence in development. In particular, after the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee, a number of incremental policies were introduced and implemented at an accelerated pace, which greatly boosted the confidence of market players. As long as there is confidence, enterprises are willing to invest, and consumers are willing to spend, and there have been positive changes in some expected indicators.

Third, a combination of policies will strengthen the momentum for economic recovery. A series of policies will have a positive effect on investment, consumption, and industrial development. There is still plenty of room for policies, and the policies that have already been put in place are also very high. All regions are implementing these policies as soon as possible, so that they can be converted into physical workload as soon as possible, which will greatly enhance the impetus for economic development. Furthermore, we have also noticed that the package of incremental policies introduced by the central government this time, in addition to some policies to maintain steady overall economic growth, there are also policies that are conducive to promoting structural optimization and promoting the development of new types of productivity. Meanwhile, a series of reform plans introduced after the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee are also being implemented. Therefore, aggregate policies, industrial policies, and structural reform policies will cooperate with each other to create synergy.

Fourth, judging from some leading indicators, we can also feel the steady upward trend and positive changes in the economy. For example, judging from changes in electricity consumption and prices of some means of production in early October, including consumption during the “Eleventh” Golden Week, they all indicate that a steady economic recovery in the fourth quarter is a probable event. Prices are often an important leading indicator of economic operation, especially the price of means of production. Compared with early October and late September, the prices of the 50 important means of production monitored rose by 33, remained flat, and only 14 fell; compared with mid-September and early September, only 18 types rose, 2 remained flat, and 30 fell. The recovery in prices is conducive to the improvement of business conditions. For example, steel prices and chemical product prices have all experienced positive changes of steady recovery. The “Eleventh” Golden Week data shows China's spending potential. The number of people traveling on holidays is increasing. Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism show that during the 7 days of the “Eleventh” Golden Week, the number of domestic travelers increased 5.9% year-on-year according to a comparable scale, travel expenses increased 6.3%, and the number of travelers increased 7.9% over the same period in 2019.

Based on the above aspects, we make a comprehensive judgment that the economy will continue the steady upward trend already seen in September in the fourth quarter. We are confident that we will meet our goals for the whole year. Thanks!

Daily Economic News Reporter:

We noticed that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September was lower than in August. What are the factors behind this? Also, how does the National Bureau of Statistics view the current price level? What are the predictions for the next phase of the trend? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. The consumer price index rose 0.4% year on year in September and remained flat month on month. The year-on-year increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. There are three main reasons for the decline in prices: First, the month-on-month increase in food prices is declining. Extreme weather such as hot weather, typhoons, and torrential rain increased in August, affecting the supply of vegetables and other foods. Food prices rose 3.4% month-on-month in August, and fell 2.6 percentage points month-on-month in September. Second, after the summer season, prices for some services, including air tickets and travel expenses, have declined, leading to a decrease in the impact of service prices on CPI. Third, it is related to the drop in oil prices. Affected by the fall in international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices are falling. Therefore, due to these three reasons, the CPI increase in September was somewhat lower than in August.

In fact, looking at our country's CPI trend, as well as the price trend of industrial products, the price formation in our country is still quite complicated, which fully reflects the characteristics of our country's vast geographical area, many levels of industry, and large differences in structural changes. Generally speaking, the price trend in the first three quarters showed the three characteristics of low operation, moderate rise, and obvious differentiation.

The first characteristic, low level operation. Regardless of CPI or PPI, the overall increase was still low. Since the first quarter of this year, the year-on-year increase in CPI has basically remained between 0.3 and 0.6. In the first three quarters, CPI rose 0.3% year on year, and the PPI of factory prices for industrial producers is still falling. From this perspective, it also shows that the contradiction of oversupply in the domestic market is still quite prominent.

The second characteristic is a gentle recovery. As the economy recovers and develops, policies to stabilize economic operation continue to be implemented, and total social demand continues to rise, driving overall prices to rise moderately. The CPI of the consumer price index remained flat in the first quarter, rose 0.3% in the second quarter, and rose 0.5% in the third quarter, rising from quarter to quarter. The overall decline in PPI is narrowing. PPI fell 2.7% in the first quarter, 1.6% in the second quarter, and 1.8% in the third quarter. This also fully shows that the economy is still recovering well. Prices are unlikely to rise moderately if the economy does not continue to recover.

The third characteristic is that price trends are diverging. The quarterly year-on-year increase in CPI continued to pick up. Although the PPI decline narrowed, it was still declining. This shows that our price situation is quite complicated. Our price operation has strong phased and structural characteristics. For example, the decline in the ex-factory price PPI of industrial producers is not only due to insufficient demand; we have also analyzed the reasons structurally. Part of this is due to import pressure, the decline in world crude oil prices and the decline in world mining product prices, so imports of these products will lead to a decline in domestic related industrial prices. Furthermore, the decline in the prices of some steel, cement, and building materials related to real estate is due to adjustments in the real estate industry, and some demand is unlikely to return to the previous level, because there may be a shift in demand, and traditional industries need to lose production capacity, so this structural change may be phased in stages. Another part is indeed related to market changes, aggregate demand, and cyclical changes. The changes and trends in PPI prices in China have strong structural characteristics.

But generally speaking, judging from this changing trend, it shows that the economy is recovering. Looking at the next stage, our overall judgment is that the price trend will continue the trend of low operation, moderate recovery, and narrowing PPI decline in the first three quarters. Because the economy will continue to pick up, aggregate demand will continue to rise, especially after a package of incremental policies is introduced, which will drive the prices of related products and industries to rise. Also, the CPI of the consumer price index is also related to the season. After winter, the supply of some foods is affected, and demand increases. For example, after pork reaches winter, especially when New Year's Day and Spring Festival are approaching, consumption will also increase, so there are some seasonal changes. Coupled with the weakening and zeroing of factors last year, overall, consumer prices and the industrial producer ex-factory price index will rise moderately and narrow in the fourth quarter. Thanks!

Nanfang Daily Reporter:

This year's graduation season has passed. Judging from employment data, how can we evaluate the performance of our country's job market? What other policy measures will be taken in the future to promote high-quality employment? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. People are also concerned about the employment issue because it directly affects everyone's income and consumption. The Party Central Committee attaches great importance to employment issues. Since this year, relevant departments have introduced a number of policies to stabilize employment, especially to address the employment of college students. Not long ago, they also issued a special document to promote high-quality employment development, and various regions are also speeding up implementation. Judging from our statistics, two characteristics are quite obvious.

First, although total employment is under pressure, employment patterns are generally stable. I just released the unemployment rate survey data to you. This is sample survey data that we made ourselves. The urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.1%, 5.2% in the first quarter, 5.0% in the second quarter, and 5.2% in the third quarter. Overall, it was relatively stable. The third quarter was a little higher than the second quarter. It was mainly affected by some seasonality of college student graduation seasons in July and August, but overall it was stable. Why is the overall employment situation in our country stable? There are also some different opinions in this regard. In addition to what I just mentioned, Party committees and governments at all levels attach great importance to employment. In addition to our strong employment support policies, we also have some of our institutional advantages. Also, there are some fundamental factors that influence it. In terms of fundamental factors, I think there are three factors that support the overall stability of employment in our country.

First, the economy continues to grow. GDP grew 4.6% in the third quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter of last year. Although the year-on-year growth rate declined, the increase in GDP generation was expanding. For example, our total GDP in the third quarter of this year was still 1293.4 billion yuan more than in the third quarter of last year. To create this much GDP wealth, the overall demand for labor has not declined and is still increasing. This is a fundamental factor.

The second is related to structural transformation. Since the 18th National Congress of the Party, our country's economic structure has been continuously transformed. One of the changes is that the service sector's share of GDP continues to rise. Since 2015, the service sector has accounted for more than 50%. Last year it was around 55%. The service sector accounted for 54.4% of GDP in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the third quarter of last year. What are the advantages of the development of the service industry? It will increase the elasticity of employment. Because most of the service industry is labor-intensive, its ability to absorb employment is relatively strong. Therefore, the ability to release employment is increasing during the structural transformation process.

Third, it is related to changes in our population structure. Since the 18th National Congress of the Party, there have been new changes in China's population structure. One change is that the number of working-age people aged 16 to 59 is declining. From 2013 to last year, in the middle of the past ten years, our average annual labor resources for 16-59 year olds decreased by about 5 to 6 million, and last year there was a net decrease of about 10 million people. In this way, it will affect the supply and demand relationship in the overall labor market. Therefore, demand is increasing and supply is falling. In this way, the total employment situation is relatively stable. This is an internal support for the unemployment rate surveyed in our country, including the overall stability of our employment situation. Judging from the future situation, I think this situation will continue to play a role. Therefore, although our total employment is under pressure, there is a solid support foundation for maintaining overall stability.

Of course, we are also facing another problem, which is that structural conflicts in employment are quite prominent. On the one hand, the employment pressure on young people is quite high, and the unemployment rate is still high, but on the other hand, we have also noticed that there is a problem of difficulties in recruiting jobs in the manufacturing industry. In particular, some frontline technicians in the manufacturing industry are still in short supply. Therefore, structural contradictions are a very important characteristic of our labor market. In the future, we must promote full employment and promote high-quality employment development. We must not only give full play to our advantages, continue to promote stable economic development, and create more jobs. At the same time, we must also pay attention to structural problems, gradually resolve them in development, and ultimately achieve full employment and promote high-quality employment development.

Thanks!

CNBC Reporter:

I was wondering to what extent has the trade-in policy boosted retail sales?

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. In fact, I've already talked about some of the effects of the trade-in policy. You specifically mentioned retail here. It is indeed an important aspect reflecting changes in the consumer market. Judging from the statistical data situation, the effects of the trade-in policy are still quite obvious. First, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2% in September, up 1.1 percentage points from August, and increased by 3.3% in the first three quarters. Among these, the trade-in policy played an important role, especially in September. I also mentioned earlier that in July, the central government introduced a policy to strengthen support for the “two new”. In August and September, various regions accelerated implementation, and the effects of the policy became even more obvious in September. There are a few statistics for September, and I'll emphasize that the retail side benefits most from trade-in are car sales, home appliance sales, office supplies sales, and home sales. The key survey we conducted showed that looking at the benefits of the policy, automobile sales and home appliance sales benefited quite a bit. About 60% of key retail companies enjoyed the benefits of this policy. Household enterprises are a little smaller, and the benefits of the policy are less than 20%. However, judging from the situation of companies that have already benefited, retail sales are growing at a relatively rapid rate. The retail sales of beneficiary companies such as home appliances increased by more than 30% in September. In addition, retail sales of automotive products per unit increased by 0.4% in September; household appliances and audiovisual equipment achieved a high growth rate of more than 20% for the first time since this year, and among them, smart home appliances grew by more than 30%, cultural and office supplies increased by 10%, and furniture changed from negative to positive. Looking at retail sales of these four categories of products alone, preliminary estimates suggest that the retail sales limit per unit of consumer goods will increase by 1.2 percentage points. Therefore, judging from the effects of the policy, it is still quite obvious. We hope that the implementation of the relevant package of policies will continue to be expedited in the future; as long as they are implemented, they will be effective.

Thanks!

Xiaoli Shou:

The last two issues are related to time.

Economic Daily reporter:

The Party Central Committee called for speeding up the cultivation and formation of new quality productivity. How was the development of new quality productivity in the first three quarters? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. Developing new quality productivity is an intrinsic requirement and an important focus for promoting high-quality development, so Party committees and governments at all levels attach great importance to it, resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, and develop new quality productivity according to local conditions. Judging from our statistics, the results in this area are also quite obvious, and the formation of new quality productivity is accelerating.

First, from the perspective of investment in innovation, investment continues to increase. Last year, China's total R&D investment exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan for the first time, ranking second in the world, and played an important role in promoting the high-tech industry and promoting innovation. According to this year's World Intellectual Property Organization report, China's innovation index ranking has risen 1 place to 11th place. Also, judging from investment in high-tech industries, investment in high-tech industries increased 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Everyone knows that fixed asset investment grew by only 3.4% in the first three quarters, so investment in high-tech industries was 6.6 percentage points higher, and investment in high-tech industries contributed 27.1% to total fixed asset investment growth, so investment in innovation continued to increase.

Second, from the perspective of new quality productivity, innovative achievements are constantly emerging. In the first eight months of this year, there was data from intellectual property departments. The number of invention patents granted increased by more than 20% over the same period last year, and quantum computers, space flight, heavy equipment from some major countries, and some major achievements continued to emerge.

Third, new industries are developing at an accelerated pace. The value added of large-scale high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, 3.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industries above scale. The value added of the information transmission, software and information technology services industry increased by 11.3% in the first three quarters, which is also significantly higher than the growth rate of the service industry. The digital economy is advancing at an accelerated pace, and the value added of the digital product manufacturing industry is growing rapidly.

Fourth, new business formats and models are being formed and expanded at an accelerated pace. Online retail sales, a new business format, continued to grow at a high rate. Online retail sales of physical goods increased 7.9% in the first three quarters, and instant retail sales and live streaming of online retail sales all maintained a high growth rate.

Based on the above situation, new quality productivity is being cultivated and formed at an accelerated pace. However, this is a process of transformation from quantity to quality. Our country's economic transformation and high-quality development ultimately depends on scientific and technological support and the accelerated formation of new quality productivity. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clearly proposed improving institutional mechanisms for developing new quality productivity according to local conditions. Among this package of incremental policies, there are also quite a few policies that are conducive to promoting the development of new quality productivity. Therefore, we believe that with the implementation of this incremental policy and the implementation of reform policies, there is plenty of room for the development of new quality productivity in China. Thank you.

Xiaoli Shou:

Last question.

Beijing News reporter:

We noticed that the growth rate of industrial value added in September stopped falling and rebounded for the first time after 4 months of continuous decline, so I would like to ask Director Sheng, what do you think of the current performance of the industry? What are your predictions for the next phase of the trend? Thank you.

Sheng Lai Yun:

Thank you for your question. Industry is a bright spot in the middle of this year's economic operation. As you can probably already see from the data, GDP grew 4.8% in the first three quarters of this year, while the industry grew 5.8% in the first three quarters. The industrial growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than the GDP growth rate, which played an important supporting role in the steady economic growth in the first three quarters, contributing close to 40%. Why did the industry perform so well in the first three quarters, becoming a bright spot in the economy?

The first reason is that our country has a solid industrial base. Among the more than 500 industrial categories announced by the United Nations, our country is the only country that is complete and has all categories. The industry has strong supporting capacity, great resilience, and plenty of room for maneuver. Therefore, although our industry has faced external shocks and internal structural adjustment pressures, the industry has shown strong competitiveness.

The second reason is that the relatively good performance of the industry this year is also related to export support. In the first three quarters of this year, the delivery value of industrial exports increased by 4.1%, and exports of full-caliber goods increased by 6.2%. These export products not only showed China's processing capacity, but also showed that exports played an important supporting role in industrial development.

The third reason is the growth of new momentum and the development of new quality productivity I just talked about. This is also an important support. Over the years, especially since the 18th National Congress of the Party, China has stepped up efforts to promote industrial restructuring, transformation and upgrading, and promote the development of new quality productivity in the industrial sector. Judging from our data, the direction and trend of industrial high-end, intelligent, and greening in recent years is obvious. I just mentioned that the value added of high-tech industries in recent years is 3 to 4 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of large-scale industries. Furthermore, our digital economy industry, including new energy-related industries where we have competitive advantages, has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, which has also provided a strong impetus for the steady development of the industry.

Another very important reason, which I mentioned earlier, is that the industrial momentum has performed quite well since this year, and it is also very related to the implementation of the “dual” and “two new” policies. Earlier, I told you about the effects of the policy. NEVs benefited greatly. Production of NEVs increased by 33.8% year on year in the first three quarters, and production of related manufacturing industries, such as metal smelting equipment and CNC forging equipment, maintained double-digit growth. The effects of these policies continue to unleash.

These four reasons contributed to the relatively good performance of the industrial economy this year and played an important role in the stable operation of the entire economy. Looking at the latter stage, although current industrial development is also facing some pressure, such as industrial product prices continue to decline, corporate profits need to be raised, industrial capacity utilization rates need to be improved, and some traditional industries need to speed up adjustment, transformation and upgrading. These structural problems need to be resolved during reform and transformation.

However, judging from the general trend, I think the industry will continue to maintain a steady development momentum. Because the supporting factors I just mentioned exist, and such as new impetus and economic transformation, these endogenous motivations will also increase. In particular, with the implementation of a package of policies in the fourth quarter, China's industrial economy will continue to maintain a steady development trend, and quality and efficiency will improve. Thank you.

Xiaoli Shou:

Thank you, Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun, and thank you to all our reporters and friends. That's all for today's press conference, bye everyone!

This article was compiled from the official website of the “National Bureau of Statistics”. Zhitong Finance Editor: Liu Jiayin.