A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Aeroports de Paris SA (EPA:ADP)

Key Insights

• Aeroports de Paris' estimated fair value is €125 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €114 suggests Aeroports de Paris is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Our fair value estimate is 7.8% lower than Aeroports de Paris' analyst price target of €135

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Aeroports de Paris SA (EPA:ADP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Aeroports de Paris

Is Aeroports de Paris Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€324.6m	€703.4m	€858.0m	€993.2m	€1.11b	€1.20b	€1.27b	€1.33b	€1.38b	€1.42b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Est @ 21.98%	Est @ 15.76%	Est @ 11.40%	Est @ 8.35%	Est @ 6.22%	Est @ 4.73%	Est @ 3.68%	Est @ 2.95%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 10%	€295	€581	€645	€678	€687	€677	€653	€622	€586	€549

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €6.0b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €1.4b× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (10%– 1.2%) = €16b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €16b÷ ( 1 + 10%)¹⁰= €6.3b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €12b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €114, the company appears about fair value at a 8.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aeroports de Paris as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.857. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Aeroports de Paris

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Aeroports de Paris, we've compiled three pertinent elements you should assess:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Aeroports de Paris (1 is concerning!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does ADP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every French stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.