Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600894)

Simply Wall St · 10/18 01:35

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd is CN¥13.06 based on Dividend Discount Model
  • Current share price of CN¥12.75 suggests Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The average premium for Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd's competitorsis currently 617%

How far off is Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600894) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd

Crunching The Numbers

As Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd operates in the machinery sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%. Relative to the current share price of CN¥12.8, the company appears about fair value at a 2.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

= CN¥0.7 / (8.6% – 2.9%)

= CN¥13.1

dcf
SHSE:600894 Discounted Cash Flow October 18th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.154. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • No major weaknesses identified for 600894.
Opportunity
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 600894's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd, we've compiled three essential elements you should consider:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Guangzhou Guangri StockLtd that you need to consider before investing here.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.