Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International Gold Prices Reach New High: Spot Gold Prices Expected to Reach $3,000 Next Year (with concept stocks)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on October 17, international gold prices once again reached a record high. COMEX gold rose to a high of 2712.7 US dollars/ounce during the day, and COMEX gold increased by more than 30% during the year. Analysts say that the continued rise in gold prices is mainly driven by both monetary attributes and safe-haven attributes. On the one hand, central banks around the world cut interest rates one after another, and the expansion of balance sheets is expected to strengthen the monetary attributes of precious metals. On the other hand, central banks have alternately increased their gold holdings, which combined safe-haven attributes to bring more favorable support to precious metals.

Central banks' purchases of gold are one of the main driving forces behind a series of record highs in international gold prices this year. Recently, central bank officials from countries such as Mexico, Mongolia, and the Czech Republic have rarely voiced their support for increasing gold reserves on various occasions. These officials said that against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and falling interest rates, the share of gold in the country's central bank reserves is likely to continue to increase in the next few years.

Joaquín Tapia, director of the Bank of Mexico's International Reserve Department, said: “Given the background we are currently facing — lower interest rates, geographical tension, the US election, and many uncertainties, maybe the share of gold in our investment portfolio will also increase.”

Furthermore, the worsening geographical situation has increased market uncertainty, leading to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Israel has turned a blind eye to the peace appeals of the United States and the United Nations, and is still intensifying its crackdown on southern Lebanon, which makes it more likely that the conflict in the Middle East will get out of control.

Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), said that the factor that changed the trend of gold prices was the relaxation of monetary policy in the US because it would create conditions for investment demand. The uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical tension will also support gold. Gold is often the first choice for investment in a low interest rate environment and geopolitical turmoil.

International gold prices have soared, and retail prices of gold and jewellery in major domestic gold stores have also continued to rise. On October 17, the price of gram weight gold offered by many gold stores such as Zhou Daifu, Zhou Liufu, and Laomiao Gold reached 793 yuan/gram. Furthermore, the industry generally believes that there is still some room for gold prices to rise in the future. Precious metals consulting firm Metals Focus expects spot gold prices to reach a record high of around $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by further interest rate cuts, geopolitical concerns, and portfolio diversification.

Open Source Securities said that October is a critical month before the US election, and overseas investors may once again compete with the expectations of the election results and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In December, a test window for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut appeared, and the market was more sensitive to data on the weakening economy. Considering that interest rates are still falling slowly (expected to be 100 BP during the year), the soft landing of the economy may be falsified, and the market quickly traded and the economy cooled down. As a result, gold still has buying points from October to November, and the 2025H1 gold price may still rise for two periods. Recommended attention: Shanjin International, CICC Gold, and Shandong Gold. Beneficiaries include Zhaojin Mining and China Gold International.

Related concept stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): The company's main profit comes from the copper and gold mining business. In the first half of the year, the company produced 518,570 tons of copper, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year, and the mine produced 35,406 kg of gold, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year. During this period, the company's Camoa Copper Mine Phase III plant was completed and put into operation half a year ahead of schedule. After delivery, the annual copper production will increase to more than 600,000 tons, making it the largest copper mine in Africa and the third largest copper mine in the world; the Sabayalton gold mine 2.4 million tons/year gold mining and 5 tons/year gold smelting project was completed and put into operation as scheduled.

Shandong Gold (01787): According to the Morgan Stanley report, against the backdrop of high gold prices, Shandong Gold continues to enjoy a strong profit trend. The company's output growth stems from the first being the further resumption of work at the Linglong Mine; the second is the final quarter operation of the Cardinal (Cardinal) project in Ghana; the third comes from the contribution of holding 28.89% of the shares affiliated with Yintai Gold (000975.SZ) (now known as Shanjin International).

Old Shop Gold (06181): In the first half of 2024, the year-on-year growth rates of old gold sales and net profit were as high as 148% and 199%, respectively. The growth performance was particularly impressive in an environment where gold prices fluctuated high and the gold jewelry industry declined since Q2. Supported by the company's strong product strength, with the popularity of social content platforms such as Xiaohongshu, the company's brand successfully broke through circles, and the number of consumers increased rapidly.