Golden Ten Data Global Finance Breakfast | October 18, 2024

Today's Top Picks

The ECB cuts interest rates by another 25 basis points

The increase in retail sales in the US slightly exceeded expectations in September

Israel says it killed Hamas leader Sinwar

Hezbollah: Confrontation with Israel enters a new phase of escalation

A number of major banks in China will cut deposit interest rates again from now on

Vice Premier of the State Council: Strengthen efficiency and implement inventory policies and a package of incremental policies

Five departments: increase the credit scale for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year

Shanghai: The minimum down payment ratio for the second upgraded housing unit was adjusted to 25%

Market inventory

On Thursday, the US dollar index finally closed up 0.24% to 103.77 as data showed an increase in retail sales in the US in September, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at a smaller pace over the next year and a half. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.0850%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.9890% .

As uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and the Middle East conflict prompted investors to seek safe haven assets, spot gold hit a record high of $2,696 on Thursday, and finally closed up 0.68% to $2691.83 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 0.05% to $31.67 per ounce.

The decline in international oil prices narrowed due to the EIA alleging an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories. WTI crude oil ended up falling 0.69% to $70.13 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.05% to $74.41 per barrel.

The US stock Dow closed up 0.37%, the S&P 500 index fell, and the NASDAQ closed a few times. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose nearly 1%, and TSM.N (TSM.N) rose 9.7%, stabilizing the trillion-dollar market value. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 3.6%, Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 2%, and Bili.O (BILI.O) and Ideal Auto (LI.O) both fell more than 5%.

Most of the major European stock indices closed higher, with the German DAX30 Index closing up 0.77%; the UK FTSE 100 Index closing up 0.79%; and the European Stoxx 50 Index closing up 0.67%.

The Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index opened higher in early trading and continued to decline after a brief rise of nearly 500 points. At one point, it fell below the 20,000 point mark in late trading; the Hang Seng Technology Index once rose more than 3% in early trading, then recovered its gains and turned down in the afternoon. By the close, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 1.02%, the Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Index's market turnover reached HK$191.26 billion. In terms of individual stocks in the sector, real estate stocks were under pressure throughout the day. Rongxin China (03301.HK), Sunac China (01918.HK), R&F Real Estate (02777.HK), Zhongliang Holdings (02772.HK), and Kaishaoye Group (01638.HK) all closed down by more than 20%; most NEV companies fell; Weilai Auto (09866.HK) fell 4.22%, Xiaopeng Motor (09868.HK) fell nearly 3%, and Ideal Auto (02015.HK) fell nearly 3%, and Ideal Auto (02015.HK) fell nearly 3% Nearly 4%.

The three major A-share indices fluctuated downward after opening higher. By the close, the Shanghai Index was down 1.05%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index was down 0.74%, and the GEM Index was down 0.32%. On the market, the copper cable high-speed connection concept is active, with Kaiwang Technology rising and falling; the Sora concept strengthened, and Zhongguang Tianze and Huayang Lianzhong rose and stopped; in addition, sectors such as information security concepts, Huawei computing power concepts, semiconductors, and aviation registered the highest gains; sectors such as real estate, construction materials, and gas supply and heating registered the highest declines. The total turnover of the two markets is about 1.5 trillion yuan.

International highlights

1. The ECB cut interest rate by 25 basis points again, and the deposit mechanism interest rate was lowered from 3.5% to 3.25%.

2. The increase in retail sales in the US slightly exceeded expectations in September, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

3. Israel claims to have killed Hamas leader Sinwar.

4. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will hold emergency security consultations. The Minister of Defense and military commanders will participate.

5. In the next few days, Brinken will travel to the Middle East regarding the release of the hostages.

6. Hezbollah Lebanon: Announces that the confrontation with Israel has entered a new phase of escalation.

7. The EU is weighing fines against social networking platform X, or taking into account the profits of other Musk companies.

Domestic highlights

1. A number of major banks have cut deposit interest rates again now. Some major banks have lowered their listed interest rates for time deposits by 25 basis points.

2. Shanghai: Starting October 18, the Housing Provident Fund personal housing loan policy will be adjusted, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second improved housing package will be adjusted to 25%.

3. Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, emphasized during research in Henan and Jiangsu that efforts should be made to improve the efficiency of implementing stock policies and a package of incremental policies, and strive to complete economic and social development goals throughout the year.

4. The sample survey on China's population and family development has entered the organizational implementation stage, and the reasons why they don't want to have children and are afraid to give birth will be comprehensively analyzed.

5. The Ministry of Commerce responds to the progress of China-Europe electric vehicle tariff negotiations: China has officially invited the European technical team to China for negotiations as soon as possible.

6. US officials requested restrictions on Huawei and other related companies in the semiconductor sector. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that it hoped the US would correct its wrong practices and provide a fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies.

7. Five departments introduced the situation relating to promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market: 1 million additional urban village renovation units and dilapidated housing renovation will be implemented through monetized housing; the credit scale for “white list” projects will be increased to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year, etc.

Risk warning

☆ The time is yet to be determined. The 2024 Financial Street Forum will open. Wu Qing, Chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission, and Li Yunze, Director of the General Administration of Financial Supervision, attended the opening ceremony and delivered speeches;

☆ At 07:30, Japan announced that the core CPI market forecast for September was 2.3%, compared to 2.8% previously;

☆ At 10:00, China announced the annual GDP rate for the third quarter. The market expected value was 4.5%, and the previous value was 4.7%; at the same time, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy;

☆ At 22:00, 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech;

☆ At 00:10 the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered a speech.