China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited's (HKG:6898) 31% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St · 10/17 22:36

China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited (HKG:6898) shares have retraced a considerable 31% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 64%, which is great even in a bull market.

Even after such a large drop in price, China Aluminum Cans Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.3x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, China Aluminum Cans Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for China Aluminum Cans Holdings

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:6898 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry October 17th 2024
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China Aluminum Cans Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is China Aluminum Cans Holdings' Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like China Aluminum Cans Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 19%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 5.5% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Aluminum Cans Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From China Aluminum Cans Holdings' P/E?

China Aluminum Cans Holdings' shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that China Aluminum Cans Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for China Aluminum Cans Holdings (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than China Aluminum Cans Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).