A Look At The Fair Value Of Dashang Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600694)

Simply Wall St · 10/17 22:13

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Dashang is CN¥20.02 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CN¥17.79 suggests Dashang is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The average premium for Dashang's competitorsis currently 477%

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Dashang Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600694) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Dashang

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥556.9m CN¥501.7m CN¥471.2m CN¥455.2m CN¥448.3m CN¥447.3m CN¥450.5m CN¥456.6m CN¥464.8m CN¥474.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -15.37% Est @ -9.90% Est @ -6.08% Est @ -3.40% Est @ -1.52% Est @ -0.21% Est @ 0.71% Est @ 1.35% Est @ 1.80% Est @ 2.11%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% CN¥510 CN¥421 CN¥362 CN¥321 CN¥289 CN¥264 CN¥244 CN¥226 CN¥211 CN¥198

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.0b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥475m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥7.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥7.7b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= CN¥3.2b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥6.3b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥17.8, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
SHSE:600694 Discounted Cash Flow October 17th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dashang as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.267. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Dashang, we've compiled three additional aspects you should explore:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Dashang , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 600694's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.