Is Woolworths Group Limited's (ASX:WOW) Recent Performance Underpinned By Weak Financials?

Simply Wall St · 10/17 20:12

With its stock down 7.0% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW). Given that stock prices are usually driven by a company’s fundamentals over the long term, which in this case look pretty weak, we decided to study the company's key financial indicators. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Woolworths Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Woolworths Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Woolworths Group is:

2.1% = AU$117m ÷ AU$5.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.02.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Woolworths Group's Earnings Growth And 2.1% ROE

It is quite clear that Woolworths Group's ROE is rather low. Even when compared to the industry average of 14%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 15% seen by Woolworths Group was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

That being said, we compared Woolworths Group's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 25% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
ASX:WOW Past Earnings Growth October 17th 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is WOW worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether WOW is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Woolworths Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Woolworths Group has a high three-year median payout ratio of 81% (that is, it is retaining 19% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 4 risks we have identified for Woolworths Group.

Additionally, Woolworths Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 74%. However, Woolworths Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 31% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, Woolworths Group's performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.