Is Newell Brands (NASDAQ:NWL) A Risky Investment?

Simply Wall St · 10/17 19:34

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Newell Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:NWL) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Newell Brands

What Is Newell Brands's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Newell Brands had debt of US$5.16b at the end of June 2024, a reduction from US$5.51b over a year. However, it does have US$382.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$4.78b.

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NasdaqGS:NWL Debt to Equity History October 17th 2024

How Strong Is Newell Brands' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Newell Brands had liabilities of US$3.50b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$5.47b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$382.0m and US$1.07b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$7.51b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$3.12b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Newell Brands would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Newell Brands shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.6), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.8 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. However, one redeeming factor is that Newell Brands grew its EBIT at 15% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Newell Brands's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Newell Brands recorded free cash flow of 31% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

To be frank both Newell Brands's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Newell Brands to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Newell Brands that you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.