Has Aris Mining Corporation's (TSE:ARIS) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Simply Wall St · 10/17 13:53

Most readers would already be aware that Aris Mining's (TSE:ARIS) stock increased significantly by 13% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on Aris Mining's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for Aris Mining

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aris Mining is:

1.2% = US$13m ÷ US$1.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.01 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Aris Mining's Earnings Growth And 1.2% ROE

It is hard to argue that Aris Mining's ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 9.2%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Aris Mining was still able to see a decent net income growth of 18% over the past five years. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared Aris Mining's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 25% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth
TSX:ARIS Past Earnings Growth October 17th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Aris Mining's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Aris Mining Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While the company did pay out a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a regular dividend. We infer that the company has been reinvesting all of its profits to grow its business.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Aris Mining certainly does have some positive factors to consider. That is, a decent growth in earnings backed by a high rate of reinvestment. However, we do feel that that earnings growth could have been higher if the business were to improve on the low ROE rate. Especially given how the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.