Are Investors Undervaluing H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) By 33%?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for H World Group is US$56.82 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$38.35 suggests H World Group is potentially 33% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 24% higher than H World Group's analyst price target of CN¥45.66

Does the October share price for H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for H World Group

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥5.73b	CN¥7.27b	CN¥8.04b	CN¥8.70b	CN¥9.27b	CN¥9.76b	CN¥10.2b	CN¥10.6b	CN¥11.0b	CN¥11.3b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Est @ 10.63%	Est @ 8.19%	Est @ 6.48%	Est @ 5.29%	Est @ 4.45%	Est @ 3.87%	Est @ 3.46%	Est @ 3.17%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	CN¥5.2k	CN¥6.1k	CN¥6.2k	CN¥6.1k	CN¥6.0k	CN¥5.7k	CN¥5.5k	CN¥5.2k	CN¥4.9k	CN¥4.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥56b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥11b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (9.2%– 2.5%) = CN¥172b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥172b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= CN¥71b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥127b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$38.4, the company appears quite undervalued at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at H World Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.352. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for H World Group

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For H World Group, we've put together three essential elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for H World Group you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does HTHT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.