Capital Power (TSE:CPX) jumps 3.3% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

Simply Wall St · 10/17 13:41

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Capital Power Corporation (TSE:CPX) share price is up 70% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 49% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 49% in the last year, including dividends.

Since it's been a strong week for Capital Power shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Capital Power

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Capital Power achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 11% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 11%. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:CPX Earnings Per Share Growth October 17th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on Capital Power's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Capital Power, it has a TSR of 127% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Capital Power shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 49% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 18%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Capital Power better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Capital Power (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.