Are Investors Undervaluing Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) By 44%?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Phillips 66 fair value estimate is US$237
• Phillips 66's US$132 share price signals that it might be 44% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 66% higher than Phillips 66's analyst price target of US$143

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Phillips 66

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$4.81b	US$5.07b	US$5.28b	US$5.47b	US$5.65b	US$5.82b	US$5.99b	US$6.15b	US$6.32b	US$6.49b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Est @ 4.13%	Est @ 3.64%	Est @ 3.30%	Est @ 3.06%	Est @ 2.89%	Est @ 2.77%	Est @ 2.69%	Est @ 2.63%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	US$4.5k	US$4.4k	US$4.2k	US$4.1k	US$3.9k	US$3.7k	US$3.6k	US$3.4k	US$3.2k	US$3.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$38b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.5b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.5%) = US$128b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$128b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)¹⁰= US$61b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$99b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$132, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Phillips 66 as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.260. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Phillips 66

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Phillips 66, we've put together three additional elements you should assess:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Phillips 66 we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does PSX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.