“Horrible data” exceeded expectations, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut during the year were hit again

On Thursday, the increase in retail sales in the US in September was slightly higher than expected, supporting the view that the economy maintained strong growth in the third quarter.

The monthly retail sales rate in the US recorded 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.1%. The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of October 12 was 241,000, lower than the forecast of 260,000. The previous value was revised from 258,000 to 260,000.

After the release of retail sales and initial demand data, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates less during the year. The US dollar index rose more than 20 points in the short term. Spot gold fell $5 in the short term

The retail sales report showed no signs of weak consumption, which reduced the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in November from 95% to 87%. Non-physical retailers (mainly e-commerce) continued to perform strongly, up 7.1% from last year. Food services and beverages also performed well, up 3.7% year over year, which is a good sign of consumer health. Strong sales data shows that consumption has shown resilience in the face of rising inflation and rising interest rates.

Signs of economic recovery may not stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, but they will reinforce expectations of cutting interest rates by only 25 basis points.

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