The popularity of the Trump campaign boosted Bitcoin, which soared 13% in a week!

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bitcoin's recent rise has attracted widespread attention from investors, not only because of its significant increase in price, but also because it is seen as a market expectation that Republican candidate Donald Trump may win the US presidential election. Over the past seven days, the value of Bitcoin has soared by about 13%, an increase that far exceeds the global stock market and gold. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller sees this trend in cryptocurrencies as an indicator of Trump's likely victory.

Figure 1

According to information, Trump promised to make the US the center of global cryptocurrencies, and the vote competition between him and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, is extremely intense. Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry made Bitcoin part of the so-called “Trump Deal,” one of his series of bets to return to the White House. Changes in the prediction market also reflect this. Trump's chances of winning on the PolyMarket and PredictIT platforms jumped to 58% and 54%, respectively, while Harris' chances declined accordingly.

Figure 2

Arisa Toyosaki, co-founder of crypto derivatives service provider Cega, pointed out that the excitement of the forecasting market has led to an increase in implied volatility, which in turn has driven up the price of spot Bitcoin. In addition, large inflows of capital into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also fueled the rise in Bitcoin's price. Since October 11, the net inflow of US Bitcoin ETFs has surpassed $1.6 billion.

Although the prediction market seems to be beneficial to Trump, there are less than three weeks left on Election Day, and most poll results show that the gap between the two sides is within the margin of error. In Real Clear Politics' national poll average, Harris is about 1.6 percentage points ahead of Trump, while in the same indicators in battleground states, Trump's lead is less than 1 percentage point.

In contrast, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrencies is relatively delicate, and she promises to support the regulatory framework for digital assets and promote the development of the industry with appropriate safeguards. This stance has inspired optimism among cryptocurrency traders and is in stark contrast to the crackdown on the Biden administration.

Meltem Demirors, general partner at Crucible Capital, said that cryptocurrency has drawn a great deal of attention to Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class as an election issue. This concern is turning into sentiment, and emotions, as we know, will generate capital flows.

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry has taken a 180-degree turn, and he once called it a scam. Digital asset companies have become influential players in the election by making huge donations to the Political Action Committee to pursue friendlier rules.

Drucken Miller said in an interview that over the past 12 days, the market seemed “very convinced” that Trump would win. This confidence is reflected not only in bank stocks, but also in cryptocurrencies.

According to reports, Bitcoin once rose 2.9% to 68,376 US dollars on Wednesday, then declined somewhat. Bitcoin last hit $70,000 in July, and reached an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March.

Figure 3