Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Travel demand remains strong, institutions are optimistic about OTA platform performance improvement (with concept stocks)

Domestic tourism revenue during the 2024 National Day holiday (7 days) was 708 billion yuan, in line with previous expectations. Under comparable conditions (average daily data), the year-on-year increase was 6.3%.

The number of domestic tourists was 765 million, up 5.9% year on year; tourism revenue/number increased 7.9%/10.2% compared to the same period in 2019, and the number of visitors recovered faster than revenue.

In terms of per capita travel spending, the National Day in 2024 is 916 yuan/person, which is the same as last year's National Day holiday (8 days).

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the movement of people across regions in the first six days of the 2024 National Day holiday was about 1.74 billion, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year, and overall demand remained strong.

Looking at the travel structure, airline ticket and hotel prices have returned to a rational range against the backdrop of an increase in the supply of travel resources. Consumer reservation windows have been shortened, erroneous travel has gradually become normal, inbound and outbound passenger flow continues to increase, and demand differentiation is obvious. On the one hand, the travel demand of residents in low-tier cities has increased, and the popularity of sinking market destinations has increased better than the industry average; on the other hand, demand for entry/exit continues to recover, and high-tier residents' destinations have gone further, and residents in the sinking market have become new outbound growth points.

According to a research report released by China Securities International, maintaining Ctrip Group-S (09961) and Tongcheng Travel (00780)'s 2024 full-year performance forecasts, Ctrip's annual revenue is expected to increase 17% year on year and the annual net profit margin is 31%; Tongcheng Travel's core OTA business revenue is expected to increase 20% year on year, with an overall adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%.

Travel OTA platform:

Ctrip Group-S (09961): The average number of inbound and outbound daily orders reached a record high. Among them, the average number of inbound travel orders per day increased nearly 80% year on year, and the average daily outbound travel orders of fourth- and fifth-tier users increased 1 time/3 times year over year. According to the Citibank report, Ctrip will disclose its third-quarter results from mid-November to late November. The bank expects its revenue and adjusted net profit to be in line with market expectations, but it is not ruled out that there is potential for further growth due to the resilience of China's tourism demand and Ctrip's good performance in controlling R&D and management costs.

Tongcheng Travel (00780): The popularity of four-star hotel reservations increased 36% year over year, ahead of other star stars. The popularity of hotel reservations in nearly 100 counties increased by more than 50% year over year.