Is There An Opportunity With VAT Group AG's (VTX:VACN) 33% Undervaluation?

Simply Wall St · 10/17 04:18

Key Insights

  • VAT Group's estimated fair value is CHF553 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • VAT Group's CHF372 share price signals that it might be 33% undervalued
  • Our fair value estimate is 18% higher than VAT Group's analyst price target of CHF470

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of VAT Group AG (VTX:VACN) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for VAT Group

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions) CHF255.0m CHF342.8m CHF454.5m CHF536.9m CHF605.4m CHF659.9m CHF702.0m CHF733.9m CHF757.8m CHF775.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Analyst x2 Est @ 18.12% Est @ 12.76% Est @ 9.01% Est @ 6.38% Est @ 4.54% Est @ 3.25% Est @ 2.35%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 4.4% CHF244 CHF314 CHF399 CHF452 CHF488 CHF509 CHF519 CHF519 CHF514 CHF504

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF4.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CHF776m× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.4%– 0.3%) = CHF19b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF19b÷ ( 1 + 4.4%)10= CHF12b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF17b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CHF372, the company appears quite good value at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SWX:VACN Discounted Cash Flow October 17th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at VAT Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.011. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for VAT Group

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For VAT Group, we've put together three additional factors you should further research:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for VAT Group we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does VACN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SWX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.