The Huatai Securities Research Report said that with the US election getting closer, investors are returning to this core external variable of A-shares and focusing on combined strategies in different scenarios. The forecast market shows that Trump is likely to be elected to the Republican+United Congress, and Harris is likely to be elected as the Democrat+Split Congress. We use this as our benchmark situation: ① deduce the differences in the impact of election results on A-shares from the three dimensions of profit expectations, discount rates, and sector structure; ② summarize the relationship between investors' trading preferences and the probability of candidates winning the election through an empirical review of the market interpretation during this election. ③ Propose trade ideas: Republican Republic+Unification Congress → Real Estate Infrastructure Chain+Dividends+Military Industry, Democratic Party + Split Congress → Export Chain+Consumer Medicine+Telecommunication. Also, following the above line of thought, the Republican/Democratic Party winning combinations are formed separately, and their relative benefits may be able to better match changes in relative approval ratings.

The Huatai Securities Research Report said that with the US election getting closer, investors are returning to this core external variable of A-shares and focusing on combined strategies in different scenarios. The forecast market shows that Trump is likely to be elected to the Republican+United Congress, and Harris is likely to be elected as the Democrat+Split Congress. We use this as our benchmark situation: ① deduce the differences in the impact of election results on A-shares from the three dimensions of profit expectations, discount rates, and sector structure; ② summarize the relationship between investors' trading preferences and the probability of candidates winning the election through an empirical review of the market interpretation during this election. ③ Propose trade ideas: Republican Republic+Unification Congress → Real Estate Infrastructure Chain+Dividends+Military Industry, Democratic Party + Split Congress → Export Chain+Consumer Medicine+Telecommunication. Also, following the above line of thought, the Republican/Democratic Party winning combinations are formed separately, and their relative benefits may be able to better match changes in relative approval ratings.