Group Intelligence Consulting: Under the trend of scene segmentation, the size pattern of large-screen laptops will show a “bipedal” trend with 16 inches and 15.3 inches as the core

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Qunzhi Consulting published an article stating that the future size pattern of the large screen laptop market should not completely replace the 16-inch segment versus the 15-inch segment, but should be a “two-legged” trend with 16 inches and 15.3 inches as the core. Starting this year, the 15.6-inch 16:9 market space is expected to gradually shrink and fall to 20% in 2028. Meanwhile, the 15.3-inch and 16-inch shares will continue to grow, and will show a convergent share characteristic around 2028, and both account for about 15% of the global laptop panel market.

Suspense: 15.3 V.S. 16 inches, which solution will stand out?

The advantages of 15.3 inches focus on lightness and cost. The 15.3-inch model began with Apple's 2023 MacBook Air product. Apple has always been the leading brand at 16:10, but due to its self-contained product and ecological system, the demonstration effect of MacBook on laptop products is not as remarkable as that of mobile phones and tablets. The rise of 16:10 in the laptop market in recent years is more dependent on the product strategy promotion of traditional major brands such as Lenovo/HP. However, in terms of large-screen laptop product solutions, since the 16-inch computer faces the cost and supply problems analyzed above, the 15.3-inch MacBook Air has become a reference target for major panel manufacturers to consider 16-inch alternatives.

Compared to the 15.6-inch 16:9, the 15.3-inch 16:10 screen can increase the viewing area; compared to the 16-inch 16:10, the screen weight is reduced by about 30-50 grams, while the weight of the fuselage can be significantly reduced by about 200 grams. More importantly, the number of cutting pieces of 15.3 inches in the mainstream generation line is comparable to 15.6 inches, and can be directly replaced from the supply side.

Therefore, starting at the beginning of this year, 15.3-inch FHD+ products began to be introduced into the mainstream lightweight product line of leading brands, and promoted a continuous increase in the penetration rate of the 15.3-inch FHD+ specification in the large screen 16:10 &; ≤ 1.9K laptop panel market, as shown in the following figure:

As such products were gradually introduced to the market, the new 15.3 mainstream laptop products began to gain prominence in the second quarter of 2024. As analyzed by Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) in the “2024 Chinese Laptop “6.18” Online Market Review” article, the 15.3-inch lightweight notebook was a new force. Its debut took about 6% of the sales share of the online lightweight and thin book market during the 6.18 promotion this year, and also ranked high in the current list of lightweight and lightweight best-selling models. After a quarter, how did the first users of the new Xiaoxin 15 evaluate this product? Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) conducted further research on this.

By analyzing the user evaluation keywords of the Xiaoxin 15 2024 on e-commerce platforms, it can be found that users are very satisfied with the overall performance of this product, and its lightness and related appearance have been particularly positively recognized by users. It can be seen that the 15.3-inch model can really impress users in the mainstream lightweight market.

At the same time, it can also be seen that there are some shortcomings of this product. For example, users are not very satisfied with the cooling performance, and their perception of performance is low. These two points (performance and heat dissipation) are also typical disadvantages of the 15.3-inch model compared to the 16-inch model. This can be seen more clearly in conjunction with the user analysis of the 16-inch model in the next section.

The 16-inch advantage focuses on first-mover effect and performance. In the above data trends relating to the size structure of large screen FHD and below, we can intuitively see the dominance of 16 inches over the large screen 16:10 market. Thanks to the successful layout of this size in the game book market, the 16 inch gradually penetrated the mainstream lightweight book market, showing a clear first-mover advantage. In this sense, the disadvantage of 15.3 inches compared to 16 inches is very obvious.

In terms of product strength, 16 inches also has a definite performance advantage over 15.3 inches. Due to the expansion of the fuselage space, the 16-inch model can unlock more opportunities to improve the overall performance of the machine. Therefore, whether the 16 inch is mounted on mainstream light and thin products or gaming products, it can be highly recognized by users for the performance of the product. Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) also selected a representative 16-inch model to study its user evaluations.

The results of the following user review study on the 2024 Savior Y9000P product show that the 16-inch gaming model has a high level of user satisfaction, especially in terms of performance and gaming experience. But at the same time, it's not hard to see that users of this size are completely unaware of the lightness and portability of this game model. This means that 16 inches are also facing insufficient user satisfaction in this light and thin game category or all-around game category.

Next, the results of the user review research on 2024 Lenovo Xiaoxin 16 products will further reveal the problem of using 16-inch screens in mainstream thin and light laptops. As shown in the figure, although Xiaoxin 16 received positive reviews for its good performance to a certain extent compared to Xiaoxin 15, user evaluations on the key index of lightness and thinness decreased markedly, and negative evaluation issues such as power consumption also occurred.

Solution: 15.3 and 16 inches each have advantages and disadvantages. Is the answer the only solution?

As can be seen from the above, 15.3 inches and 16 inches each have their advantages and disadvantages, and there is a clear difference in product power between thin and light books and gaming books. Qunzhi Consulting has made a brief summary of this, as shown in the following table:

As mentioned above, 15.3 inches and 16 inches each have advantages in large-screen laptop products: 15.3 inches are more portable and suitable for users' everyday office and general gaming needs; 16 inches have superior performance and display effects, and are suitable for middle and high-end users for professional office and in-depth gaming needs. Therefore, Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) believes that under the 16:10 trend, the size scheme for large-screen laptop screens is not the only solution, but rather a double solution. This means that 15.3 inches and 16 inches have common market space for development.

Outlook: Under the trend of scene segmentation, the size pattern of large-screen laptops will be “two-legged”.

Since IBM launched the first generation of ThinkPad products in 1992, laptop products have made great strides. Dongfeng of Internet technology has gained the heyday of the industry, but it has also fallen into a period of industrial desolation due to the prosperity of mobile internet. The pandemic's home lifestyle has re-spawned market vitality for laptop products, and AIPC's technological innovation after the pandemic has further opened up a new blueprint for laptop products.

However, no matter how technological trends change, for mature products, deepening user needs and exploring detailed user scenarios is the core of the survival of the industry and products. Based on this, laptop user scenarios are becoming more and more detailed, and laptop product solutions are also more diversified and enriched.

Looking forward to the future of large-screen laptops, under the 16:10 trend, using 15.3 inches and 16 inches as a dual solution to balance the diverse needs of different user groups for laptop products in different application scenarios should become an industry consensus.

Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) suggests that for mainstream lightweight books/lightweight game books/all-purpose games, 15.3 inches are more consistent with users' needs and are worth focusing on; for mainstream game books/high-end game books/professional creation categories, 16 inches is more in line with the user's demand structure, and the layout should be further strengthened.

Based on this, Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) believes that the future size pattern of the large-screen laptop market should not completely replace the 16-inch segment versus the 15-inch segment, but should be a “two-legged” trend centered around 16 inches and 15.3 inches.

As shown in the chart below, Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) predicts that starting this year, the 15.6-inch 16:9 market space will gradually shrink and fall within 20% in 2028. Meanwhile, the 15.3-inch and 16-inch shares will continue to grow, and will show a convergent share characteristic around 2028, and both account for about 15% of the global laptop panel market.