New Study Reveals Dramatic Slowdown in Life Expectancy Gains

Barchart · 10/16 17:37

A published paper in ‘Nature Aging’ titled "Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century" (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00702-3) presents evidence that humans are nearing a biological limit to life expectancy, with significant medical advancements linked to large increases in life expectancy already achieved. Lead author S. Jay Olshansky from the UIC School of Public Health and Chief Scientist/Co-Founder of Lapetus Solutions Inc. states, “Most older individuals today are living on time manufactured by medicine, but these 'medical band aids' have been documented to yield fewer additional years, indicating the period of rapid life expectancy increases is over.”

Olshansky argues that extending life through disease reduction without ensuring health can be detrimental. He advocates for a shift towards efforts that slow aging and enhance healthspan.

The analysis for the paper reveals that, despite advancements in life-extending medical technologies, life expectancy at birth in the longest-living populations has only increased by an average of 6.5 years since 1990. This growth is significantly lower than earlier predictions that life expectancy would accelerate in the 21st century, suggesting most people born today would live past 100. The research, conducted with teams from the University of Hawaii, Harvard, and UCLA, continues a three-decade debate on the limits of human longevity.

This rate of improvement falls far short of expectations from other scientific research that life expectancy would increase at an accelerated pace in the 21st century and that most people born today will live past 100 years.

In 1990, Olshansky's paper in “Science” titled “In Search of Methuselah: Estimating the Upper Limits to Human Longevity” claimed that human life expectancy was nearing a ceiling of about 85 years, with most significant gains already achieved. Conversely, other studies suggested that advancements in medicine and public health would continue into the 21st century and accelerate life expectancy higher at a faster pace.

Now, 34 years later, evidence in “Nature Aging” indicates that life expectancy gains have already slowed down as more individuals face aging-related challenges. The study analysed data from the eight longest-living countries and Hong Kong, along with the U.S., which has experienced a decline in life expectancy.

Olshansky stated, “Our result overturns the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species is somewhere on the horizon ahead of us... Instead, it’s behind us.” He noted that modern medicine is producing smaller gains in longevity, despite rapid advancements.

This trend challenges industries promising longer life and affects insurance and wealth management sectors, which often assume clients will live to 100. In a podcast, Olshansky criticized this assumption, warning that most people may need to work longer than necessary to secure their finances for potentially shorter lifespans.

However, Olshansky and his colleagues argue that while medicine can provide further health and longevity benefits, efforts should focus on enhancing the quality of life for older adults rather than merely extending life. They advocate for more investment in geroscience, the biology of aging, which may lead to significant improvements in healthspan.

Lapetus’ technology aims to provide accurate lifespan and healthspan estimates, helping older adults maximize their lives and assist wealth management strategies. Olshansky concluded, “This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall... We can push through this glass health and longevity ceiling with geroscience and efforts to slow the effects of aging.”

About Lapetus Solutions

Lapetus Solutions is an AI-driven technology company founded in the US in 2015, combining expertise in aging science, public health, and human biology with AI-based facial analytics capability to revolutionize the delivery of health intelligence. With more than 40 years of expertise, Lapetus founders have developed patented technology for identifying health and life expectancy insights with specific applications in life and health insurance, life settlements, and other financial services industries.

Lapetus Solutions' overarching goal is to empower healthier, longer lives by combining science and technology to deliver insights and solutions that ultimately improve the customer experience, health, and wellbeing.