Investing in CDW (NASDAQ:CDW) five years ago would have delivered you a 90% gain

Simply Wall St · 10/16 15:46

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But CDW Corporation (NASDAQ:CDW) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 80% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 5.4% in the last year.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

See our latest analysis for CDW

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, CDW managed to grow its earnings per share at 12% a year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 12%. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:CDW Earnings Per Share Growth October 16th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of CDW's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for CDW the TSR over the last 5 years was 90%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

CDW shareholders are up 6.5% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 14% over five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for CDW you should know about.

CDW is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.