A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Northrop Grumman fair value estimate is US$647
• Northrop Grumman's US$527 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The US$537 analyst price target for NOC is 17% less than our estimate of fair value

How far off is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Northrop Grumman

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$3.03b	US$3.26b	US$3.21b	US$3.65b	US$3.82b	US$3.97b	US$4.11b	US$4.24b	US$4.37b	US$4.49b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x7	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.59%	Est @ 3.96%	Est @ 3.53%	Est @ 3.22%	Est @ 3.00%	Est @ 2.85%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2%	US$2.9k	US$2.9k	US$2.7k	US$2.9k	US$2.8k	US$2.8k	US$2.7k	US$2.6k	US$2.5k	US$2.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$27b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.5b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (6.2%– 2.5%) = US$123b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$123b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)¹⁰= US$67b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$95b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$527, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Northrop Grumman as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.906. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Northrop Grumman

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Northrop Grumman, we've put together three relevant factors you should further research:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Northrop Grumman , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
2. Future Earnings: How does NOC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.