Is the Cattle Rally Over?

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures broke lower yesterday following slowing momentum in recent sessions. The market traded down below first support but was able to defend it on a closing basis, that comes in from 186.075-186.40. A failure and close below here keeps the downside open with the next objective for the Bear camp coming in from 184.225-184.55. We don't foresee a catastrophic selloff (like the few that we've seen over the last year) happening as the fundamentals still remain pretty stout.

• Resistance: 189.47-190.075, 191.47-191.62
• Pivot: 187.675-188.00
• Support: 186.075-186.40, 184.225-184.55

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were firm yesterday with choice cuts 3.51 higher to 316.83 and select 2.99 higher to 292.09. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 187.00, steady with recent reports. Tuesday's slaughter was reported at 125k head.

Feeder Cattle (November)
If you've been looking for a pullback in feeder cattle you were wrong for a week but right in a day. The slower upward momentum and eventual failure to continue higher led to a wave of long liquidation yesterday which dropped prices back below our pivot pocket from 246.82-247.60. If the Bulls can't find their footing and fail to get back out above here we could see a continued (healthy) retracement down to support from 242.75-243.77.

• Resistance: 249.85-250.80*, 253.075-253.90
• Pivot: 246.82-247.60
• Support: 242.75-243.77, 239.62-240.15

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