Haitong Securities: Forklift sales in September were +6.06% year-on-year, leading domestic producers accelerated internationalization and intelligent layout

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities published a research report saying that forklifts are highly correlated with the macroeconomy, and the recovery in the manufacturing industry will have a positive impact on domestic forklift sales. At the same time, domestic forklift manufacturers continue to explore overseas markets with cost, electrification and delivery advantages, highlighting global competitiveness; in addition, related equipment renewal policies are expected to increase the demand for renewal in the forklift industry. Forklift sales increased 6.06% year on year in September. Overseas markets maintained relatively rapid growth, and sales growth in overseas markets was higher than in domestic markets. Domestic leaders accelerated internationalization and intelligent layout, and Hangcha Group (603298.SH) established subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam; Yufeng Intelligence, a subsidiary of Anhui Heli (600761.SH), was selected as a national-level specialized and innovative “little giant” enterprise.

Forklift sales increased 6.06% year on year in September, and overseas markets maintained relatively rapid growth. According to the WeChat account and Wind data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in September 2024, 106,000 forklifts of all types were sold, up 6.06% year on year. From January to September, 970,700 forklifts of all types were sold, up 10.80% year on year. By region, the overseas market sales growth rate in September was higher than that of the domestic market. Among them, sales of forklifts in the domestic market were 62,800 units, down 5.32% year on year; exports were 43,200 units, up 28.5% year on year.

Electric forklift sales accounted for 59.49% in August, and the forklift electrification rate increased by 0.70 pct over the previous month. According to Wind data, in August 2024, domestic forklift sales were 92,100 units, foreign forklift sales were 0.68 million units, and domestic forklift sales accounted for 93.17%; domestic electric forklift sales volume was 58,800 units, internal combustion forklift sales volume was 401,000 units, electric forklift sales accounted for 59.49%, up 0.70 pct from month to month.

Macro manufacturing sentiment tracking: PMI increased 0.7 pct month-on-month in September, and profits of industrial enterprises above scale increased 0.5% year-on-year in January-August. According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, 1) PMI: The PMI index for September 2024 was 49.8%, +0.7 pct. The manufacturing boom rebounded. Among them, the production index/new order index/raw material inventory index was 51.2%/49.9%/47.7%, +1.4/+1.0pct compared to the previous month, indicating that production activities of manufacturing enterprises have improved, market demand has improved, and the decline in stocks of major raw materials has narrowed slightly. 2) Profit of industrial enterprises above scale: In January-August, the profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased 0.5% year on year. Among them, the profit of industrial enterprises above scale fell 17.8% year on year in August, mainly due to factors such as the high base for the same period last year. The total profit of the mining/manufacturing/electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries in January-August was -9.2%/+1.1%/+14.7% year-on-year.

Monthly forklift working hours and operating rate: In September, the monthly working hours of forklifts decreased by 4.27% month-on-month, and the monthly operating rate of forklifts decreased by 7.3 pcts month-on-month. According to the WeChat account of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in September 2024, the average monthly working time of major construction machinery products was 90 hours, an increase of 3.99%, of which forklifts were 62.8 hours, a decrease of 4.27% month over month; the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products was 64.2%, an increase of 3.74% month on month, including forklifts by 40%, a decrease of 7.3 pcts month on month.

Key tracking in the forklift industry:

1) Anhui Heli: The subsidiary Yufeng Intelligence was selected as a national specialized and new “Little Giant” enterprise; Heli AGV won the first international competition award. According to HELI Heli Forklift's WeChat account, ① Yufeng Intelligence: Recently, Yufeng Smart was successfully selected as a national specialized and new “Little Giant” enterprise. Yufeng Intelligence is one of the few enterprises in the industry with independent R&D, design and delivery capabilities for the entire industry chain. The product range covers four business segments, including logistics robots, automated three-dimensional storage equipment, industrial vehicles, and a complete set of smart logistics system solutions. Since its establishment, Yufeng Intelligence has served nearly 1,000 customers, built more than 1,000 application scenario cases, and sold its products to overseas markets. There are mature industry solutions and application cases in the electricity, new energy, automotive, pharmaceutical, precision manufacturing and other industries. ② Heli AGV: Recently, Heli AGV won the 2024 American International Design Excellence Award (IDEA) Product Group Silver Award. At present, Heli has formed a full range of AGV products in 8 categories and 22 varieties, built a one-stop intelligent logistics integration platform for intelligent machine manufacturing, system development and scenario applications, and has built a new intelligent i-series product portfolio and intelligent logistics overall solution, covering multiple scenarios such as logistics handling and storage, picking, receiving, delivery, and supplementation. Since this year, the revenue of the Heli Intelligent Logistics business segment has increased 161.20% year over year.

2) Hangcha Group: Set up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam to accelerate the international layout. According to Hangcha Group's “Notice of Resolutions of the 15th Meeting of the 7th Board of Directors” and the “Notice of Resolutions of the 16th Meeting of the 7th Board of Directors”, the company decided to establish subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Among them, the establishment of subsidiaries in Malaysia and Vietnam will further help enhance the company's global marketing resource allocation, innovate marketing models, establish a fast and efficient operating leasing system, and enhance the company's brand image. The Thai subsidiary is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of industrial vehicles such as forklifts and aerial work platforms, lithium battery assembly and sales. The investment project plans to purchase land in Thailand, build new production workshops and office buildings, and build manufacturing and lithium battery assembly functions for balanced forklifts and aerial work platforms in the early stages, and initially form a production capacity of 10,000 units including balanced heavy forklifts, scissor aerial work platforms, and arm-type aerial work platforms.

3) Nuoli Co., Ltd.: The Korean subsidiary of Nuoli opened, and the global layout continues to deepen. According to the WeChat account of Nuoli Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., Nuoli's Korean subsidiary officially opened on September 25, marking that Nuoli has taken another solid and strong step in the broad international market. Among them, the Nuoli SC series aerial work platform is a popular product in Korea. With its functions such as automatic walking, vertical lifting, and platform extension, it has shown excellent performance in various indoor and outdoor environments. It is widely used in various fields such as equipment installation and maintenance, and has won wide praise from the market.

Investment advice: Haitong Securities believes that forklifts are highly correlated with the macroeconomy, and the recovery in the manufacturing industry will have a positive impact on domestic forklift sales. At the same time, domestic forklift manufacturers continue to explore overseas markets with cost, electrification and delivery advantages, highlighting global competitiveness; in addition, related equipment renewal policies are expected to increase the demand for renewal in the forklift industry. Recommended attention: Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group.

Risk warning: macroeconomic development falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; exports fall short of expectations; progress in new product research and development is slowing down.