Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) Stock Has Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Strong: Is The Market Wrong?

Simply Wall St · 10/16 10:56

With its stock down 9.7% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG). But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Northern Oil and Gas' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Northern Oil and Gas is:

27% = US$565m ÷ US$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.27.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Northern Oil and Gas' Earnings Growth And 27% ROE

First thing first, we like that Northern Oil and Gas has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 16% the company's ROE is quite impressive. So, the substantial 46% net income growth seen by Northern Oil and Gas over the past five years isn't overly surprising.

Next, on comparing Northern Oil and Gas' net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 40% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:NOG Past Earnings Growth October 16th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Northern Oil and Gas fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Northern Oil and Gas Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Northern Oil and Gas' ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 8.6% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (91%) of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Additionally, Northern Oil and Gas has paid dividends over a period of three years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 38% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Northern Oil and Gas' performance has been quite good. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.