Shareholders in Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) are in the red if they invested three years ago

Simply Wall St · 10/16 10:51

While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE) share price up 22% in a single quarter. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. In that time, the share price dropped 50%. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. The rise has some hopeful, but turnarounds are often precarious.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

See our latest analysis for Five Below

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Five Below actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 12% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Five Below further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:FIVE Earnings and Revenue Growth October 16th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling Five Below stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

Five Below shareholders are down 47% for the year, but the market itself is up 34%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Five Below better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Five Below has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.