Investing in Fortnox (STO:FNOX) five years ago would have delivered you a 270% gain

Simply Wall St · 10/16 06:28

While Fortnox AB (publ) (STO:FNOX) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 11% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. We think most investors would be happy with the 266% return, over that period. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

See our latest analysis for Fortnox

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Fortnox managed to grow its earnings per share at 44% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 30% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. Having said that, the market is still optimistic, given the P/E ratio of 55.59.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
OM:FNOX Earnings Per Share Growth October 16th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Fortnox's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Fortnox, it has a TSR of 270% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Fortnox shareholders are up 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 30% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.