Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery's (SZSE:002461) earnings growth rate lags the 6.1% CAGR delivered to shareholders

Simply Wall St · 10/16 05:52

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd (SZSE:002461) shareholders have enjoyed a 26% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 11% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 11%, including dividends.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

Check out our latest analysis for Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 11% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 5% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002461 Earnings Per Share Growth October 16th 2024

We know that Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery's TSR for the last 5 years was 35%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 6% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Is Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

But note: Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.