Investors in RWE (ETR:RWE) have seen respectable returns of 31% over the past five years

Simply Wall St · 10/16 04:01

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. To wit, the RWE share price has climbed 15% in five years, easily topping the market return of 2.2% (ignoring dividends).

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for RWE

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, RWE became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. In fact, the RWE stock price is 1.5% lower in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 34% each year. So there seems to be a mismatch between the positive EPS growth and the change in the share price, which is down -0.5% per year.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:RWE Earnings Per Share Growth October 16th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how RWE has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of RWE, it has a TSR of 31% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

RWE shareholders are down 3.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 17%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that RWE is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...

We will like RWE better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.