Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making Co., Ltd (SHSE:688401) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making had CN¥626.5m of debt, up from CN¥381.7m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥252.7m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥373.9m.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making had liabilities of CN¥459.5m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥388.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥252.7m and CN¥228.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥366.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making has a market capitalization of CN¥4.82b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
We'd say that Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.5), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 21.0 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Fortunately, Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making grew its EBIT by 8.1% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
On our analysis Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Shenzhen Newway Photomask Making .
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.